Assembly of ungulate communities as an outcome of interspecific interactions over ecological and evolutionary time frames

影响本地物种群落聚集的因素的相对重要性是生态学中的一个关键问题。任何单个物种的分布都受到一系列环境“非生物”变量的影响，如温度和降水，但也受到其与周围物种的相互作用的影响，这种相互作用可能是竞争性的，也可能是促进性的。此外，即使在相似的环境条件下，灭绝等随机因素也会导致物种群落之间的差异。在这个项目中，我将使用最近开发的联合物种分布建模方法来研究这些因素在物种丰富和生态多样化的脊椎动物群体（即有蹄类动物）中群落组装中的作用，重点是非洲不同的有蹄类动物群落。特别是，我将确定这一群体内种间竞争和促进的模式，以及它们在不同空间尺度上的变化。随着项目的进展，我将使用系统发育比较方法来识别可能与有蹄类群落聚集相关的生态特征的趋同进化，最终目的是综合上述方法，形成有蹄类群落生态学和进化的概念模型。展望未来，该模型可用于预测气候或其他环境变化对非洲有蹄类群落的影响，以及由于当地物种灭绝或范围转移而导致的种间相互作用变化所产生的影响。当物种局部灭绝时，由于种间的相互作用，它往往在群落层面上产生更广泛的影响。多物种分布模型的最新进展为确定生态行会内种间竞争和促进模式提供了令人兴奋的机会。反过来，通过使用比较方法来确定物种之间趋同进化的案例和进化事件的顺序，可以更深入地了解支撑这些相互作用的原理。有蹄类动物由于其物种丰富、生态和形态多样性，是一个特别适合统计分析的模型系统。本项目计划采用宏观生态学的方法来研究影响有蹄类群落结构的生态和进化驱动因素。该计划是利用联合物种分布模型（JSDM）和比较方法分析物种分布、生态和形态特征、人类土地利用和系统发育历史的数据。这些模型可用于探索持续环境变化的后果，例如过度开发和气候变化，从而确定对生物多样性保护的关注和减轻威胁的最佳选择。

The relative importance of factors influencing the assembly of local species communities is a key question in ecology. The distribution of any individual species is impacted by a range of environmental "abiotic" variables, such as temperature and precipitation, but also by its interactions with surrounding species, which may be either competitive or facilitative. Furthermore, stochastic factors, such as extinction, can lead to variation between communities of species even under similar environmental conditions. In this project, I will use recently developed methods in joint species distribution modelling to investigate the role of these factors in community assembly in a species-rich and ecologically diverse group of vertebrates, i.e., the ungulates, with a focus on the varied ungulate communities in Africa. In particular, I will identify patterns of interspecific competition and facilitation within this group, as well as how they vary at different spatial scales. As the project progresses, I will use the phylogenetic comparative method to identify convergent evolution of ecological traits that may be relevant to the assembly of ungulate communities, with the ultimate aim of synthesising the above approaches to form a conceptual model of the ecology and evolution of ungulate communities. Looking forward, this model could be used to predict the impact of climate or other environmental change on ungulate communities in Africa, as well as impacts resulting from changes in interspecific interactions due to local species extinctions or range shifts. When species go locally extinct, it often has wider repercussions at the community level due interspecific interactions. Recent advances in multi-species distribution modelling present exciting opportunities to pinpoint patterns in interspecific competition and facilitation within ecological guilds. A deeper understanding of the principles underpinning these interactions can in turn be obtained by using the comparative approach to identify cases of convergent evolution between species and the sequence of evolutionary events. Ungulates are a particularly well-suited model system for statistical analysis because of their species richness and ecological and morphological diversity. This project plans to take a macroecological approach to investigate the ecological and evolutionary drivers shaping the structure of ungulate communities. The plan is to analyse data on species distributions, ecological and morphological traits, human land-use and phylogenetic history using Joint Species Distribution Modelling (JSDM) and comparative methods. Such models can be used to explore consequences of ongoing environmental changes, such as overexploitation and climatic shifts, and thereby identify concerns for biodiversity conservation and best options for threat mitigation.