THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCE ON THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF ANIMAL POPULATIONS

在全球范围内，动物迁徙越来越多地受到人类主导的景观的阻碍，并且由于它们经常跨越区域和国家边界，因此管理起来具有挑战性。为了保护这些物种，自然资源保护主义者和野生动物管理者需要预测的人口统计模型，这些模型是机械的，能够进行敏感性和情景分析，并与生理和行为数据参数化。利用积分投影模型（integrated Projection Models, IPMs），本研究将量化人类介导的环境变化对一个关键迁徙物种种群动态的影响。具体解决两个研究问题：(i)人为干扰的累积效应如何影响种群动态？（二）迁徙人口将如何应对未来的干扰？将开发一个迁移积分预测模型（IPM）来评估随时间积累的非致命性干扰对种群水平的影响。通过IPM的实施和参数化，研究将探讨人口水平过程对人为干扰和环境变化的敏感性。

Globally, animal migrations are increasingly impeded by human dominated landscapes and are challenging to manage, as they frequently cross regional and national borders. To protect these species, conservationists and wildlife managers need predictive demographic models that are mechanistic, enable sensitivity and scenario analyses, and are parameterised with physiological and behavioural data. Using Integral Projection Models (IPMs), this research will quantify the effects of human-mediated environmental change on the population dynamics of a keystone migratory species. Specifically addressing two research questions, (i) How do cumulative effects of anthropogenic disturbance impact population dynamics?, and (ii) How will migratory populations respond to future disturbance? A migratory integral projection model (IPM) will be developed to evaluate the population level consequences of nonlethal disturbances that accrue over time. By implementing and parameterising the IPM, the research will explore the sensitivity of population-level processes to anthropogenic disturbances and environmental change.