Political Economies of Clean Energy Transition in Pakistan

巴基斯坦作为一个发展中国家，在全球温室气体排放中所占份额不到1%。电力供应严重依赖进口热燃料(40千兆瓦装机容量的66%)，这使得消费者负担不起电价，阻碍了国家经济增长。26%的人口没有电力供应。根据联合国可持续发展目标7(SDG7)的目标，即确保到2030年所有人都能获得负担得起、可靠、可持续的现代能源，以及通过实现净零排放将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以下的《巴黎协定》。中国承诺清洁能源转型(CET)的目标是：(I)可再生能源的60%份额，电动汽车的30%，能源效率翻一番，到2030年国家自主贡献(NDC)2021年预计排放量减少50%(Ii)电力市场从单一买家向多买家批发竞争市场转变。然而，CET面临着多方面的社会经济、技术、制度和监管障碍。因此，该项目解决了研究问题：在巴基斯坦成功实施CET需要什么政策、激励框架和技术干预的组合？在全球范围内，能源终端使用是温室气体的最大来源(75%)；其成本效益高的脱碳可以最大限度地通过基于可再生能源的电气化来实现。世界上三分之二的电力是由化石燃料产生的，要实现NZE，需要80%的电力脱碳。各国正在制定可再生能源目标，以摆脱以煤炭为基础的发电。脱碳的速度取决于国家的政治和经济环境。与巴西的低碳强度电力系统相反，南非的CET由于依赖化石燃料而被政治化。CET面临的社会经济挑战是电价、公用事业商业模式和对可再生能源的党派政策支持。由于财政空间有限，巴基斯坦的政策通常是由经济优先事项驱动的。从2007年到2020年，能源危机给国家造成了820亿美元的GDP损失。政策、金融、基础设施、制度和监管障碍可能会破坏CET的好处。主题研究旨在通过确定政策、激励机制和技术干预的最佳组合，以社会、环境和经济上可行的方式实现CET目标，从而实现国家发展目标和可持续发展目标，从而支持政策制定者做出明智的决定。将使用混合方法开发政策和决策支持技术-经济模型(模型)，以评估CET对电力部门和国家社会经济发展的经济效率的影响。在基于情景的方法下，将进行能源和排放建模，以评估每个情景的技术经济、财务和社会影响。定性分析将通过专家访谈、焦点小组讨论、调查、二次数据收集和对能源转型的政策、计划、国家和国际报告的广泛案头审查进行。在定量分析的基础上，确定排放-能源-经济的关系。CET的社会经济影响将被计算为年发电量、统一的电力成本、排放-能源-经济关系、社会福利和国家经济产出的函数。该项目计划与巴基斯坦主要研究和政策智库可持续发展政策研究所合作开展。预计完成时间为36个月，预计将为巴基斯坦能源部门的可持续发展带来重要好处。

Pakistan being a developing country has less than 1% share in global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG). Electricity supplies are heavily relied upon imported thermal fuels (66% of 40 gigawatt capacity) making electricity prices unaffordable for consumers hampering country economic growth. 26% population does not have electricity access. Pursuant to objectives of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) i.e. ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 and Paris Agreement to keep global warming below 1.5 degree Celsius by achieving Net Zero Emissions (NZE). Country has made pledge of clean energy transition (CET) targeting (i) 60% share of renewable energy, 30% of electricity vehicles, doubling energy efficiency, 50% reduction in its projected emissions by 2030 in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 2021 (ii) electricity market transformation from Single Buyer to Multiple Buyers Wholesale Competitive Market. However CET is facing multifaceted socioeconomic, technical, institutional and regulatory barriers. Accordingly, the project addresses the research question: what combination of policies, incentive frameworks and technological interventions are required for successful implementation of CET in Pakistan? Globally energy end use is largest source (75%) of GHG; its cost-effective decarbonisation is possible through renewable based electrification to maximum extent. Two third of world electricity is generated by fossil fuels, achieving NZE will require decarbonisation of 80% electricity. Countries are setting renewable targets to move away from coal-based generation. The pace of decarbonisation depends upon country political and economic circumstances. CET in South Africa was politicized process due to reliance on fossil fuels contrary to Brazil having low carbon intensity electricity system. Socio-economic challenges for CET are electricity prices, utilities business models and partisan policy support for renewables. Policies in Pakistan are generally driven by economic priorities due to limited fiscal space. During 2007 to 2020, energy crisis cost country $82 billion GDP loss. Policy, financial, infrastructure, institutional and regulatory barriers could undermine CET benefits. Subject Research aims to support policymakers in making informed decisions by identifying best combination of policies, incentive mechanisms and technological intervention to achieve CET targets in socially, environmentally and economically viable manners leading towards achievement of NDCs and SDG7. Mixed methods will be used to develop a Policy and Decision Support Techno-Economic Model (Model) for evaluating impact of CET on economic efficiency of electricity sector and country socio-economic development. Under scenario based approach, energy and emissions modeling will be carried out to evaluate techno-economic, financial and social implication of each scenario.Qualitative analysis will be carried out through experts' interviews, focus groups discussions, surveys, secondary data collection and extensive desk review of policies, plans, national & international reports on energy transition. Under quantitative analysis, the emissions-energy-economy relationship will be determined. Socio-economic impact of CET will be worked out as function of annual electricity generation, levelized cost of electricity, emissions-energy-economy relationship, social welfare and country economic output. Project is planned to be carried out in collaboration with Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Pakistan premier research and policy think tank. The expected timeline of completion is thirty six months anticipating vital benefits for Pakistan energy sector sustainability.