Modelling the effectiveness of antibiotic mass administration in acute humanitarian crises

结核分枝杆菌肺炎是全世界儿童死亡的单一最大传染病原因，特别是在人道主义紧急情况下。最近，世界卫生组织建议高死亡率地区的儿童使用阿奇霉素的大规模药物管理局(MDA)，但对选择耐药可能性的担忧导致对阿奇霉素的吸收有限。将丙二醛与肺炎球菌疫苗接种相结合可以限制这种风险，从而有助于在危机中降低肺炎死亡率。该项目与索马里兰、冈比亚、越南等地的合作者以及无国界医生组织密切合作，成功的申请者将进一步了解人道主义危机中肺健康的复杂相互依存关系，并学习和应用一系列先进的分析技术，以评估PCV和MDA综合方案的好处和风险。这些将包括贝叶斯统计，以估计可预防的疾病负担，以及数学建模，以估计在丙二醛和肺炎球菌联合接种运动之后疾病预防和抗药性获得的动态影响。

TBCPneumonia is the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide, particularly in humanitarian emergencies. Recently, the WHO recommended Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of Azithromycin to children in regions with high mortality but concerns regarding the potential to select for resistance have led to limited uptake. Combining MDA with pneumococcal vaccination could limit this risk and thus help reduce pneumonia mortality in crises. Working closely with collaborators at our field sites including Somaliland, the Gambia and Vietnam as well as MSF the project will see the successful applicant further the understanding of the complex interdependencies in lung health in humanitarian crises and learn and apply and range of advanced analytical techniques to estimate the benefits and risks of a combined PCV and MDA programme. These will include Bayesian statistics to estimate the preventable disease burden and mathematical modelling to estimate the dynamic effects of disease prevention and resistance acquisition following a combined MDA and pneumococcal vaccination campaign.