The Decline of Fertility in the United States, 1790-2000

描述(申请人提供)：美国生育率下降和差异的原因和政策影响的研究一直受到阻碍，因为缺乏可比较的长期生育率估计，并侧重于短期因素。该项目将：(1)编制一套结构一致的、可比较的1790年至2000年生育率趋势和差异；(2)建立经验模型，以了解生育率下降的过程。这项分析依赖于两个相辅相成的来源的数据：综合公共使用微观数据系列(IPUMS)和国家历史地理信息系统(NHGIS)项目，前者是1850年至2000年间15个人口普查年的一系列大型、高精度人口普查微观数据样本，后者是1790-2000年人口普查收集的汇总数据的兼容数据集。拟议的发展计划旨在实现四个目标：1)获得新的方法技能，使我能够准确描述和解释美国生育率的长期下降；2)获得更好的理论基础，以整合对美国生育率下降原因的社会和经济解释；3)在学术会议上展示我的工作，并在领先的期刊上发表文章；以及4)准备拨款提案，以支持一个独立的研究项目。我的计划包括三个独立的培训部分：顶尖人口学家和经济学家的指导，宾夕法尼亚大学人口学的课程作业，以及通过宾夕法尼亚州人口研究中心的研讨会和美国人口协会的年度会议参与人口研究社区。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Research on the causes and policy implications of fertility decline and differentials in the United States has been hampered a lack of comparable, long-term fertility estimates and a focus on short-term factors. This project will: (1) produce a consistently constructed and comparable set of fertility trends and differentials between 1790 and 2000; and (2) construct empirical models to understand the processes by which fertility declined. The analysis relies on data from two complementary sources: The Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), a series of large, high-precision census microdata samples for fifteen census years between 1850 and 2000, and the National Historical Geographic Information System (NHGIS) project, a compatible dataset of aggregate data collected with the 1790-2000 censuses. The proposed development plan is designed to accomplish four objectives: 1) to acquire new methodological skills to allow me to accurately describe and explain long-term fertility decline in the United States; 2) to acquire a better theoretical grounding from which to integrate social and economic explanations of why American fertility declined; 3) to present my work at scholarly conferences and publish in leading journals; and 4) to prepare a grant proposal to support an independent research program. My plan includes three separate training components: mentorship by leading demographers and economists, coursework in demography at the University of Pennsylvania, and participation in the population research community via workshops and seminars at the Pennsylvania Population Studies Center and annual meetings of the Population Association of America.