Growth and Exisential Risk

我想研究增长和生存之间的关系，以创造决策相关的研究，旨在支持寻求保护我们灭绝的慈善家。我将与牛津大学的全球优先研究所以及剑桥的生存风险研究中心合作，确定最紧迫的研究领域。在我的研究方案中，我提出了一个初步的想法。我建议采用Aschenbrenner(2020)提出的模型，该模型从消费(增加生存风险)和安全(降低风险)两个方面总结了经济，纳入了慈善家、利他主义活动，以及通过“价值”部门改变代理人偏好的可能性。这本书试图捕捉希望降低灭绝风险的慈善家面临的选择，并将探索慈善家是否应该将资源直接分配给安全，或者他们是否应该以改变代理人的偏好为目标，如果是这样的话，他们应该以什么方式改变。人们可能会认为，慈善家的最优策略是，首先试图增加代理人的利他主义，以收集更多资源，然后再着眼于增加代理人的耐心，直接将资源分配给安全，并降低代理人对消费(相对)满足的程度。

I want to research the relationship between growth and existential to createdecision-relevant research aimed at supporting philanthropists seeking toprevent our extinction. I would collaborate with the Global Priorities Institute atthe University of Oxford as well as the Centre for the Study of ExistentialRisks at Cambridge to determine the most pressing areas of research. In myresearch proposal, I present a preliminary idea. I propose to adopt the model proposed by Aschenbrenner (2020), which summaries the economy in terms of consumption (which increases existential risk) and safety (which reduces it) to incorporate philanthropist, altruistic activities, and the potential to change the preferences of agents through a 'value' sector. This seeks to capture the options faced by a philanthropist who wishes to reduce the risk of extinction and would explore whether philanthropists should allocate resources directly towards safety or whether they should aim instead to alter agents' preferences, and if so in what way. One might expect the optimal strategy of the philanthropist to involve initially attempting to increase the altruism of agents to gather more resources, before aiming to increase the patience of agents, allocating resources towards safety directly and decreasing the point at which agents become (relatively) satiated by consumption.