Modelling determinants of fertility among UK-born ethnic minorities using multilevel simultaneous equations event history models and the parametric g-

随着工业化，妇女开始工作，核心家庭的概念被摧毁，低生育率在一些发达国家已成为一种社会风险。英国是生育率下降的国家之一，然而，英国某些种族的生育率仍然很高。一些英国出生的少数民族妇女，其父母来自高生育率的国家，其出生率高于英国本土妇女。以往的研究表明，文化和规范因素是大家庭的原因，而其他研究则指出，少数民族缺乏教育和就业前景是主要因素;然而，某些族裔群体生育率高的原因尚不清楚。大多数关于少数民族生育率的研究在调查出生率的决定因素时没有区分移民的后代和移民。此外，以前的学者关注的是总和生育率，使用的是平均数。相比之下，我的研究将考虑生育率及其在个人层面上的影响因素，考虑英国出生的少数民族的平等。影响生育行为的因素是复杂和相互依存的。调查数据往往无法充分衡量的文化和规范观点以及就业和伙伴关系等不同生活领域的纵向轨迹也可能对生育模式产生影响。我的博士研究旨在通过比较两种不同方法的性能来解释未观察到的和随时间变化的混杂因素，从而做出方法上但实质性的贡献;联立方程事件历史分析和参数g公式。因此，本研究探讨了英国出生的少数民族妇女生育率的决定因素。研究问题是，“哪些因素导致某些英国出生的少数民族妇女的高生育率？“这项研究计划利用英国家庭纵向研究-理解社会-的个人层面数据，该研究涵盖了英国5万多人，包括各种族裔群体。收集了生育率、婚姻状况和就业状况的回顾性数据，并以小组内变化的前瞻性数据作为补充。该数据集还涉及基本的社会人口因素，包括教育水平，宗教信仰，以及受访者及其父母的出生国。因此，该数据集将有助于了解社会经济和文化规范因素对英国出生的少数民族妇女生育行为的综合影响。培训包括理论背景、文献综述和研究技能等各个领域。通过旁听圣安德鲁斯大学有关人文地理和高级定量分析的一些课程以及参加苏格兰社会科学研究生院的博士培训方案，已经（并将继续）开展了这些活动。此外，将有定期监督，以获得对我的研究建议，并讨论一般事项考虑进行博士学位。

With industrialisation, as women have started working and the concept of the nuclear family has been demolished, a low fertility rate has been a social risk in some developed countries. The UK is one of the countries that experience a declined fertility rate, however, there are certain ethnic groups that still have a high fertility rate in the UK. Some UK-born ethnic women, whose parents are from countries that have high fertility rates, have higher birth rates than native British women. Previous studies suggest that cultural and normative factors are the reasons for large families, whereas others address that the lack of education and employment prospects among ethnic minorities are the main factors; nonetheless, the reason for high fertility rates among certain ethnic groups is unclear. Most research about the fertility rate of ethnic minorities does not differentiate immigrants' descendants from immigrants when investigating determinants of birth rate. In addition, previous scholars have focused on the total fertility rate, utilising averages. Contrastingly, my research will consider fertility rate and their influencing factors on an individual level, considering UK-born ethnic minorities by parity. Factors affecting fertility behaviours are complex and inter-dependent. Cultural and normative perspectives, which often are not adequately measured by survey data, and longitudinal trajectories in different life-domains - such as employment and partnership - could also have impacts on fertility patterns. My PhD research intends to make methodological but substantive contributions by comparing the performance of two different methods to account for both unobserved and time-varying confounders; Simultaneous Equation Event History Analysis and the Parametric g-formula. This study, hence, explores determinants of fertility among UK-born ethnic minority women by parity. The research question is, "Which factors cause high fertility rates among certain UK-born ethnic minority women?" This study plans to utilise individual-level data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study - Understanding Society - which covers more than 50,000 individuals in the UK including various ethnic groups. Retrospective fertility, marital status and employment status were collected, and these are supplemented by prospective data on changes within the panel. The dataset also involves essential socio-demographic factors including education level, religious affiliation, and the countries of birth of the respondents and their parents. Therefore, this dataset will be helpful to understand the comprehensive impact of socio-economic and cultural-normative factors on the childbearing behaviour of UK-born ethnic minority women. Training includes various areas such as theoretical background, review of literature, and research skills. These have been conducted (and will be conducting) through auditing some courses regarding the subject of human geography and advanced quantitative analysis from the University of St. Andrews, as well as taking doctoral training programmes at the SGSSS (Scottish Graduate School of Social Science). Additionally, there will be regular supervision to get advice on my research and discuss general matters considering undertaking PhD.