Public Expertise, Scientific Evidence, and Political Decision-making: Statistical and Public Policy Perspectives

COVID - 19大流行使公共政策制定过程中长期存在的一些潜在紧张局势更加明显。其中包括：专业知识的性质及其对决策过程的影响；数据和证据在决策中的适当作用；以及如何最好地平衡政治需求，使“好政治”也能带来“好政策”。科学研究的是复杂性、概率和风险建模。政治依赖于确定性的投射。那么，当科学知识固有的模糊性面对务实的政治现实时，会发生什么呢？该项目将通过详细检查政策的证据构建过程如何在白厅内外运作来调查这个问题。随着先进统计和机器学习等新技术在政策决策中变得普遍，这一点尤为重要。来自当前政策决定的相关例子，包括项目内数量技术的发展，将是审查这些问题的核心。

The COVID pandemic has brought into sharper relief some of the underlying tensions that have long existed in the making of public policy. Amongst these are: the nature of expertise and its impact on policymaking processes; the appropriate role for data and evidence in decision-making; and how best to balance political imperatives in ways that mean 'good politics' will also lead to 'good policy'. Science deals in complexity, probability, and the modelling of risk. Politics relies on the projection of certainty. What happens, then, when the inherent ambiguity of scientific knowledge confronts the pragmatic realities of politics? This project will investigate that question by examining in detail how the evidence-building process for policy works within Whitehall and beyond. This is of particular importance as new technologies, such as the use of advanced statistics and machine learning, become prevalent in policy decisions. Relevant examples from current policy decisions, including the development of quantitative techniques within the project, will be central to examining such questions.