The Effects of Generational Differences on the Formation Redistribution Preferences and Electoral Behaviour in Western Europe

西欧民主国家经济不平等的加剧引发了大部分选民对政策和选举偏好的重大冲击（Piketty 2020）。然而，目前尚不清楚这种日益加剧的经济不安全感是否会加剧再分配偏好，并将选民推向社会民主党。为什么不断加剧的经济不平等并没有促进对经济再分配的更高需求，反而推动了对经济不平等的保守反应的总体趋势，这一点仍存在争议（Hopkin 2020； Norris和Inglehart 2019），年轻人似乎对经济持批评态度，越来越多地支持挑战者政党（Milburn 2019； Giugni和Grasso 2021）。相关学术研究通常将再分配偏好的形成解释为个人经济环境变化的影响，前者是影响投票选择的干预因素（Meltzer and Richard 1981; Rueda and Stegmueller 2019）。然而，经济投票的论点忽视了经济观点可能在多大程度上取决于选民的政治社会化经验（Inglehart and Abramson 1994; Inglehart 2008; Grasso et al. 2019）。这项研究通过借鉴代际政治的政治社会化观点来提高这一水平。特别是，它研究了青年时期经济不安全对政策和选举偏好的跨代影响，并评估了再分配偏好在主流政党和挑战者政党之间的选举选择中的作用程度。主要研究问题为该项目提供了信息：(i)成年早期经济不安全的经历是否对再分配偏好产生持久影响，特别是在经济困难时期？（ii）再分配偏好是否比在不同社会经济背景下长大的人更能推动年轻时经历过经济不安全感的人的选举选择？其目的是评估经济不安全的形成经历是否对经济困难时期的态度有持久的影响，以及早期经历过经济不安全的人是否比没有经历过经济不安全的人更倾向于投票给挑战者政党。为了解决这些问题，我将对几个西欧民主国家的个人偏好数据进行分层年龄-时期-队列分析，并在英国和意大利这两个关键国家进行联合调查实验，测试再分配偏好对选举选择的影响。这项研究为围绕不平等的政治影响的辩论提供了原创性的贡献，启发了将形成性经历作为再分配偏好和投票行为形成的对立解释的重要性。它将构成一项相关的知识，以解释西欧目前正在进行的民主政治转型的有关方面。

Summary (no more than 500 words) The rise of economic inequalities in Western European democracies has provoked significant shocks in the policy and electoral preferences of large shares of the electorates (Piketty 2020). However, it remains unclear whether such rising economic insecurity heightens redistribution preferences and drives voters towards social democratic parties. Why rising economic inequalities do not foster a higher demand for economic redistribution and instead drive a general tendency towards conservative reactions to economic inequalities remains debated (Hopkin 2020; Norris and Inglehart 2019), and young people appear critical of the economy and increasingly supportive of challenger parties (Milburn 2019; Giugni and Grasso 2021). The relevant scholarship usually explains the formation of redistribution preferences as an effect of changes in personal economic circumstances, the former being the intervening factors shaping vote choice (Meltzer and Richard 1981; Rueda and Stegmueller 2019). Economic voting arguments nevertheless overlook the extent to which economic views may depend on the experience of political socialisation of voters (Inglehart and Abramson 1994; Inglehart 2008; Grasso et al. 2019). This research enhances this state-of-the-art by drawing on a political socialisation perspective of generational politics. In particular, it examines the cross-generational effects of exposure to economic insecurity during youth on policy and electoral preferences and assesses the extent to which redistribution preferences matter in the electoral choice between a mainstream and a challenger party. The project is informed by main research questions: (i) does the experience of economic insecurity during early adulthood have a lasting effect on redistribution preferences, especially during periods of economic hardship? (ii) do redistribution preferences drive the electoral choice of people who experienced economic insecurity in their youth more than people who grew up in a different socioeconomic context? The aim is to assess if the formative experience of economic insecurity has an enduring effect on attitudes during periods of economic hardship and if people who experienced early economic insecurity have a higher propensity to vote challenger parties than people who did not. To address these questions, I will implement a Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort analysis with pooled data on individual-level preferences from several Western European democracies and test the effect of redistribution preferences on electoral choice using conjoint survey experiments fielded in two crucial country cases, the United Kingdom and Italy.This research provides an original contribution to the debate around the political effects of inequalities, enlightening the importance of considering formative experiences as a rival explanation of the formation of redistribution preferences and voting behaviour. It will constitute a relevant piece of knowledge to explain relevant aspects of the currently ongoing political transformation of democracy in Western Europe.