Economics of decarbonisation / The unusable wealth of nations: Petrostates and macroeconomic transition risks in the Persian Gulf region

为了达成《巴黎协定》，世界必须在未来几十年大幅减少化石燃料的消耗。然而，全球对化石燃料需求的减少可能会导致“意外或过早的减记、贬值或转换为负债”--也就是所谓的搁浅资产。这可能对石油国家产生严重影响，其中许多国家面临重大宏观经济挑战，人类发展水平低，严重依赖化石燃料租金进行经济发展(即过渡风险)。鉴于石油国家中经常存在的无数现有政治经济挑战(即，人类发展缓慢、机构薄弱、宏观经济不稳定等)，以搁浅资产的形式出现的收入冲击可能对这些国家及其社会产生严重影响。因此，从国内经济和人类福利的角度来看，这一话题极其重要。此外，考虑到这些国家化石燃料资源的巨大规模及其相对显著的地缘政治影响力，它们的行动也可能对世界其他地区产生重大影响。因此，在系统层面上，这些国家面临过渡风险的程度，以及它们将如何管理剩余的化石燃料资产，可能会对净零过渡产生严重后果。这就提出了一个问题：什么样的一套经济政策和机制可以降低石油国家的转型风险，同时确保它们遵守《巴黎气候协定》规定的国际义务？为了回答这个问题，本文将开发新的分析框架和方法来衡量、比较和建模石油国家的转型风险。还将选择这些国家中的一部分作为案例研究，并将仔细分析、模拟和评估它们对过渡风险的经济反应。目标是确定能够使各国同时有效地实施风险缓解和脱碳战略的一揽子政策和路线图。

To achieve the Paris Agreement, the world must reduce fossil fuel consumption dramatically over the next few decades. However, the reduced global demand for fossil fuels will likely result in "unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations, or conversion to liabilities" - otherwise known as stranded assets. This could have serious implications for petrostates, many of which suffer from significant macroeconomic challenges, low human development levels and are heavily dependent on fossil fuel rents for economic development (i.e., transition risk). Given the myriad of existing political economy challenges that are often present within petrostates (i.e., low human development, weak institutions, macroeconomic instability, etc), a revenue shock in the form stranded assets could generate serious implications for these countries and their societies. Therefore, from a domestic economic and human welfare standpoint, this topic is extremely important. Moreover, given the sheer size of these states' fossil fuel endowments and their relatively significant geopolitical influence, their actions are also likely to have significant implications for the rest of the world. Therefore, at a systematic level, the extent to which these states are exposed to transition risk and how they will manage their remaining fossil fuel assets will likely have serious consequences for the net-zero transition. This poses the question: What set of economic policies and mechanisms can reduce the transition risk in petrostates, while also ensuring compliance with their international obligations under the Paris Climate Agreement? To answer this question, the thesis will develop new analytical frameworks and methods to measure, compare, and model transition risk in petrostates. A subset of these countries will also be selected as case-studies and their economic responses to transition risk will be carefully analysed, modelled, and evaluated. The goal is to identify the policy packages and roadmaps which could enable states to pursue risk mitigation and decarbonisation strategies simultaneously and efficiently.