Effects of coastal change in the selection of a geological disposal facility

本项目的目的是开发适合于描述英国周围气候变化下海岸演变的方法。这将通过改进对沿海系统的实际了解和先进的统计和数字技术相结合来实现。在将详细的沿海过程模型纳入长期气候预测时，研究成果将提供必要的工具，以预测100至100 000年的时间尺度的沿海变化。该项目的主要目标概括如下：开发基于过程的模拟沿海变化使用动态缩小全球气候英国海岸周围。在海岸演变模型中纳入人类干预措施（海岸保护结构）和额外的沉积物源/汇条件。使用改进的物理理解和先进的统计方法（替代模型，风暴排序）减少形态动力学环的维数。根据气专委的预测，在短期时间尺度（100多年）内提供改进的沿海变化表示法。将短期方法整合到长期预测中（10万年）。量化模型中的不确定性。这些信息将为选择和评估潜在的地质处置设施提供重要的见解，并为评估其长期安全性提供良好的基础。

The purpose of the present project is to develop methodologies appropriate to the description of coastal evolution under a changing climate around the UK. This will be achieved by a combination of improved physical understanding of the coastal system and advanced statistical and numerical techniques. In integrating the detailed modelling of coastal processes into long-term climate prediction, the research outcomes will provide the necessary tools to predict coastal change intime scales ranging from 100s to 100,000s years. The main objectives of the project are summarised as follows:Develop process-based simulations of coastal change using dynamically downscaled global climate around UK coasts. Incorporate human interventions (coastal protection structures) and additional sediment source/sink terms in coastal evolution modelling. Dimensional reduction of morphodynamic loops using improved physical understanding and advanced statistical methods (surrogate modelling, storm sequencing). Provide am improved representation of coastal change in short-term time scales (100s of years) under climate change scenarios obtained from IPCC predictions. Integrate the short-term methodology into long-term predictions (100,000s of years). Quantify the uncertainty in models.This information will provide critical insights regarding the selection and assessment of coastal sites as potential Geological Disposal Facilities and provide a sound basis for assessing their safety in the long term.