Testing the impact of the 8.2 ka BP abrupt climatic event on Mesolithic societies

20世纪和21世纪全球气温的上升导致了冰量的急剧减少。海洋-冰冻圈的相互作用被认为是地质时期突发气候事件（ace）的直接强迫因子。因此，这些事件为理解在当前和预计的气候变暖下超越社会和生态临界点的可能后果提供了合适的类比。全新世（11700年至今）的ace被认为对人类文化产生了变革性影响。8.2ka事件作为全新世最剧烈的气候突变时期，可能是研究中石器时代（公元前10000-4000年）对气候胁迫响应的关键时期。然而，许多研究在年代学、古生物记录的解析或所采用的统计方法方面存在关键问题，从而限制了其结论的有效性。通过制作详细描述季节气候变化的高分辨率古气候和古生态记录，将实现更有力的分析，这些记录详细说明了气候变化如何影响对人类活动的关键控制，例如资源的可用性。还将对放射性碳数据集进行质量保证。然后将使用放射性碳测年事件计数事件模型检验社会变化与气候强迫之间关系的证据。

Rising global temperatures across the 20th and 21st centuries has caused the dramatic loss of ice volume. Ocean-Cryosphere interactions are considered to have been direct forcing factors for the trigger of Abrupt Climatic Events (ACEs) over geological time. Such events, therefore, offer suitable analogues for understanding the possible consequences of transgressing social and ecological tipping points under current and projected climatic warming. ACEs over the Holocene (11,700-present) have been proposed as having transformative impacts on human culture. The 8.2ka event, as the largest magnitude period of abrupt climate change during the Holocene, may therefore be considered as a key time to investigate the Mesolithic (10000-4000 BC) response to climatic stress. Many studies, however, have critical issues with either the chronology, the resolution of palaeocological records, or the statistical methods employed, limiting the efficacy of their conclusions. A more robust analysis will be achieved by producing high-resolution palaeoclimatic and palaeoecological records detailing seasonal climatic change, which detail how climate variations impacted key controls on human activity, such as resource availability. Quality assurance of the radiocarbon dataset will also be performed. Evidence for a relationship between societal change and climate forcing will then be tested using Radiocarbon-date Event Count Event modelling.