Integrating Past Archives of Insular Crocodylians into Diversity Baselines and Future Projections

鳄鱼自1亿多年前出现以来，作为大型底栖动物的顶端捕食者，在维持全球淡水生态系统的功能方面发挥了重要作用。尽管鳄鱼在漫长的进化历史中表现出了明显的韧性，但由于受到越来越大的人为压力，鳄鱼在整个第四纪经历了数量、分布和功能多样性的大幅减少。这在岛屿上最为明显，在过去的100,000年里，从加勒比海到马达加斯加再到大洋洲，几种特有鳄鱼物种的丧失，以及其他鳄鱼种群的大量灭绝，都是明证。众所周知，岛屿物种特别容易灭绝，而且对维持当地功能生物多样性负有不成比例的责任，因此保护它们至关重要。然而，促进保护工作的第一步是了解以前损失的程度。该项目将致力于理清岛屿鳄鱼灭绝过程的复杂和不为人知的方面，利用过去的数据为未来的政策提供信息。通过进行aDNA分析，汇编过去物种发生的档案，并使用整体方法将它们纳入分布模型，我的研究旨在回答有关人类世影响岛屿鳄鱼种群的因素的关键问题。

As megafaunal apex predators, crocodylians have played significant roles in maintaining the functionality of global freshwater ecosystems since their emergence over 100 million years ago. Despite their demonstrable resilience over a long evolutionary history, crocodylians have experienced substantial reductions in populations, distributions and functional diversity throughout the Quaternary as they have come under intensifying anthropogenic pressures. This is most evident on islands, witnesses to the loss of several endemic crocodylian species, alongside the decimation of the populations of others, from the Caribbean to Madagascar to Oceania, over the last 100,000 years. Insular species are known to be both particularly susceptible to extinction and disproportionately responsible for the maintenance of local functional biodiversity, making their conservation of paramount importance. The first step in facilitating conservation efforts is, however, to understand the extent of previous losses. This project will endeavour to disentangle complex and untold dimensions of extinction processes in island crocodylians, using the data of the past to inform the policies of the future. By conducting aDNA analyses, compiling past archives of species occurrences and including them in distribution models using a holistic approach, my research aims to answer key questions about the factors shaping island crocodylian populations in the Anthropocene.