Modelling the disorganised ecology of post-pandemic respiratory viruses

在2019冠状病毒病大流行之前，冬季呼吸道病毒的传播是相对可预测的。然而，在大流行期间实施的疫情控制措施使正常的季节性模式陷入混乱。在流感和呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）等季节性呼吸道病毒的历史低流行之后，它们又卷土重来，其特点是传播不寻常。造成这一现象的因素可能多种多样，例如在严格限制期间没有接触到这些病毒。那些通常会被感染的人会获得免疫力，免受感染。然而，对于大多数季节性呼吸道病毒，免疫力不是终身的，这意味着在一段时间后，有可能再次感染，从而产生感染模式。该博士项目将利用COVID-19大流行造成的呼吸道病毒通常季节性传播的中断，以及这些病毒的以下重组，以更好地了解它们如何在环境中传播，以及如何创建和维持循环模式。该项目将使用英国卫生安全局（HSA）关于呼吸道感染的公开数据。此外，将与主管一起考虑使用欧洲疾病预防和控制中心（ECDC）托管的可公开获得的欧洲数据集进行分析的可能性。将对有关病毒的历史传播进行分析，以便将其与当前和“大流行年”期间的传播进行比较。将设计和开发数学模型，以调查大流行后季节性呼吸道病毒传播变化的生物学或社会学原因。这种研究方法将极大地促进定量技能的发展。此外，研究问题的方法将是多学科的，因为公共卫生，病毒学，免疫学以及统计学和计算机编程的要素将被考虑。因此，将获得传染病建模方面的深度知识，并且由于研究的性质和工作环境，还将获得知识的广度。该项目为更好地了解季节性呼吸道病毒传播的驱动因素提供了机会。这方面的知识有助于制定战略，减轻呼吸道病毒感染的影响，减轻其对人群的负担，并减轻其对卫生保健系统造成的压力。该项目的工作将对各国政府和公共卫生有益；有了更多的知识，他们可以提供更好的指导和建议，并设计出更有效和更有针对性的未来干预措施。

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of respiratory viruses during the winter was relatively predictable. However, outbreak control measures implemented throughout the pandemic have thrown regular seasonal patterns into disarray. After historically low circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), they have returned, characterised by unusual transmission. Various factors may be contributing to this phenomenon, such as the lack of exposure to these viruses during the period of heavy restrictions. Those that would have normally been infected would have gained immunity, protection from infection. However, with most seasonal respiratory viruses, immunity is not lifelong, meaning that after a certain period there is the potential for reinfection, thus creating patterns of infection.This PhD project will use the disruption to usual seasonal circulation of respiratory viruses, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the following reorganisation of these viruses to better understand how they circulate in the environment and how circulation patterns are created and maintained.This project will use publicly available data on respiratory infections from the UK Health Security Agency (HSA). In addition, the possibility of using publicly available European datasets hosted at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) for analysis will be considered with the supervisors. An analysis on historical circulation of the viruses of interest will be done so that it can be compared to current circulation and during the "pandemic years". Mathematical models will be designed and developed to investigate biological or sociological reasons for changes in post-pandemic seasonal respiratory virus circulation. The research method will significantly contribute to the development of quantitative skills. In addition, the approach to the research question will be multidisciplinary since elements of public health, virology, and immunology as well as statistics and computer programming will be considered. Therefore, depth of knowledge will be obtained on infectious disease modelling and breadth of knowledge will also be acquired due to the nature of the research and the working environment.This project offers an opportunity to better understand the drivers of seasonal respiratory virus transmission. This knowledge can be useful to establish strategies to mitigate the impact of respiratory virus infections, reduce their burden on the population and alleviate the strain they put on healthcare systems. The work from this project will be useful to governments and public health; equipped with more knowledge they can provide better guidance and advice as well as design more effective and targeted future interventions.