Understanding the scaling of impacts of Natural Climate Solutions for people, nature, and the climate

世界面临着前所未有的气候和生物多样性威胁，对全世界人民的影响越来越大。自然气候解决方案旨在恢复、管理和保护自然，以应对这些挑战。这些解决方案可能在政府、企业和民间社会实现全球可持续发展目标的计划中发挥重要作用。例如，波恩挑战是到2030年恢复3.5亿公顷退化土地的一项重大国际倡议。同样，恢复是国际保护组织（CI）自然气候解决方案路线图的核心方法。因此，人们普遍呼吁“扩大”自然气候解决方案的实施规模，但这些解决方案在为人类、自然和气候带来积极成果方面的成功程度参差不齐。在某些情况下，这些举措未能得到广泛采纳。例如，许多森林恢复项目尚未超过试验阶段。在其他情况下，这些举措得到大规模实施，但无助于可持续发展成果。例如，2012年在菲律宾吕宋岛种植了超过100万棵红树林幼苗，但到2020年只有不到2%的幼苗存活下来。相反，一些自然气候解决方案倡议已经成功地产生了大规模的影响，例如尼泊尔社区林业计划，该计划在恢复森林的同时为19，000个社区林业团体提供生计利益。本利斯DTP案例旨在确定自然气候解决方案倡议的特征，这些特征影响其“扩大规模”的可能性和产生积极成果的能力。同样，该项目还将确定可扩展性和有效性之间的权衡。识别这种协同作用和权衡将有助于指导具有可扩展影响的计划的设计。这个利斯DTP案例将利用帝国理工学院伦敦和CI之间的合作。利斯DTP的学生可以在几个项目现场进行比较案例研究。候选地点可能包括东非、南美洲、亚洲和其他地方的地点。该项目预计将使用混合定性和定量方法，可能包括空间统计分析。CASE项目将为学生提供独特的培训机会，与主要的国际保护组织一起开发，实施和传播研究。利斯DTP CASE将涉及三个主要组成部分，在2-3个案例地点同时进行，回答三个问题：1.哪些因素影响了一些社区参与自然气候解决方案项目，而另一些社区则没有？这个问题将通过对社区代表进行半结构化的关键知情人访谈来探讨。该项目对气候和生物多样性的预测影响是什么？这一问题将通过将恢复位置的空间数据与二级信息相结合来回答。该项目对居民福祉的不同方面有哪些短期积极和消极影响？将通过对收养者社区的家庭进行调查来探讨这一问题。它将为学生提供独特的培训机会，开发，实施和传播与主要国际保护组织的研究。

The world faces unprecedented threats to its climate and biodiversity, increasingly impacting people worldwide. In response, Natural Climate Solutions aim to restore, manage, and protect nature to tackle these challenges. These Solutions might play a significant role in government, business, and civil society plans to meet global sustainability goals. For example, the Bonn Challenge is a major international initiative to restore 350 million hectares of degraded land by 2030. Similarly, restoration is a core approach in Conservation International's (CI) Natural Climate Solutions Roadmap. As such, there have been widespread calls to "scale up" the implementation of Natural Climate Solutions.But the success of these Solutions in delivering positive outcomes at scale for people, nature, and the climate has been mixed. In some cases, these initiatives fail to get widely adopted. For example, numerous forest restoration projects have not gone beyond the piloting stage. In other instances, these initiatives are implemented at scale but do not contribute to sustainable development outcomes. For instance, over one million mangrove seedlings were planted on the Filipino island of Luzon in 2012, but by 2020 less than 2% had survived. Conversely, some Natural Climate Solution initiatives have successfully delivered impacts at scale, such as the Nepal Community Forestry Program, which recovered forests while delivering livelihood benefits across 19,000 community forestry groups.This LISS DTP CASE aims to identify the features of Natural Climate Solution initiatives that influence both their likelihood of "scaling up" and their ability to deliver positive outcomes. Equally, the project will also identify trade-offs between scalability and effectiveness. Identifying such synergies and trade-offs will help guide the design of initiatives with scalable impacts.This LISS DTP CASE will leverage collaboration between Imperial College London and CI. The LISS DTP student could lead a comparative case study across several project sites. Candidate sites could include those in East Africa, South America, Asia, and elsewhere. The project is expected to use mixed qualitative and quantitative methods, potentially including spatial statistical analysis.The CASE project will provide the student with unique training opportunities, developing, implementing, and disseminating research with a major international conservation organisation.The LISS DTP CASE will involve three main components, conducted simultaneously across 2-3 case sites, answering three questions:1. What are the factors that influence why some communities engage in Natural Climate Solution projects while others do not? This question will be explored through semi-structured key informant interviews among community representatives.2. What are the predicted climate and biodiversity impacts of the project? This question will be answered by combining spatial data on the location of restoration with secondary information.3. What are the short-term positive and negative impacts of the project on different aspects of residents' well-being? This question will be explored through surveys among households in adopter communities. It will provide the student with unique training opportunities, developing, implementing, and disseminating research with a major international conservation organisation.