Addressing risk, stakeholder preferences and appropriate responses to the UK energy crisis in a climate changed world

2021年1月，英国超过50%的能源需求来自可再生能源。当时，英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊（当时的他）承诺，英国将通过立法实现世界上最雄心勃勃的气候变化目标，到2035年将温室气体排放量与1990年相比减少78%。巧合的是，今天英国78%的能源需求来自化石燃料。因此，英国正在与自己的立法目标背道而驰，这是第六个碳预算和巴黎协定。与此同时，最近的经验证据表明，气候风险对基础设施，日常生活，家庭福祉，商业和工业的影响越来越大。洪水和极端天气事件造成与所有这些因素有关的损害，并对现在和未来构成重大和日益严重的风险。联合王国许多地区的洪水风险很高，在现场一级、社区一级和区域一级的保护措施不足方面存在重大风险。此外，几乎没有理由认为，根据当代历史，公共当局将有效地管理风险。气候变化造成的海岸侵蚀也正在成为相关社区和企业的一个更持久的特征。我们最北部的集水区表明，缺水量更大，更频繁，可供抽取的水也更多。同样重要的是，国际供应链风险直接影响到货物的供应。鉴于英国经济的大部分GDP都与国际贸易有关，最近显示，食品、服装和电子产品等基本商品的供应链风险对我们的生活质量产生了重大影响。更重要的是，正在进行的俄罗斯乌克兰战争和生活成本危机给英国政府实现低碳未来的能力带来了巨大的新压力。这些因素都对当代和子孙后代带来重大的环境风险。这种对渐进的气候变化战略的高度后果性压力的描述并不是联合王国所独有的。欧洲联盟在试图实施其新的欧盟绿色协议时也面临着同样的挑战。因此，从今年开始，英国议会环境审计委员会正在寻求一项全国性的"战争努力"动员措施，以引导英国回到一个健全的低碳未来的基础上。因此，它强调采取重大的能源效率措施，以减少气候变化的影响和减少对化石燃料的依赖。例如，它呼吁在两年内安装100万个新的节能装置，并在本十年结束时安装250万个此类装置。委员会还希望进一步增加风能、太阳能和潮汐能发电。它还希望任何新的石油和天然气许可证的具体结束日期。不幸的是，这些雄心壮志没有强有力的实施策略。在这种环境下，风险状态，这个项目将使用定量和定性方法相结合：1。在这种低碳未来的逆转中，描述公民社会面临的日益上升的环境风险; 2.评估战争努力措施对减轻环境风险的潜在贡献; 3.批判性地分析与战争努力低碳措施有关的实施缺陷和机会，同时考虑到欧洲的比较经验; 4.确定利益攸关方对环境损害风险升高和相关自然资源制约因素的影响; 5.评估利益相关者和专家对我们低碳未来的偏好; 6.提出符合当代英国能源安全和可负担性需求的气候和环境风险降低措施。

In January 2021, more than 50% of the UK's energy needs came from renewables sources. At that time, Prime Minister Boris Johnson (as he then was) committed the United Kingdom to achieve the world's most ambitious climate change target through legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. By coincidence, today 78% of the UK's energy needs are sourced from fossil fuels. As such, the UK is traveling in reverse gear away from its own legislated targets, is sixth Carbon Budget and the Paris Agreement.At the same time, recent empirical evidence suggests the growing impact the climate risks are having on infrastructure, everyday life, household well-being, business and industry. Flooding and extreme weather events cause damage in relation to all of these factors and pose a significant and growing risk for now and in the future. Flood risks are high in many parts of the United Kingdom with significant exposure risk in relation to insufficient protection measures at the site level, community level and regional level. Moreover, there is little reason to assume that on the basis of contemporary history, public authorities will manage risks at an effective level. Coastal level erosion caused by climate change is also becoming a more permanent feature of relevant communities and businesses. Our northernmost catchment areas for water suggest larger and more frequent deficits and the availability of water for abstraction. Of equal significance,international supply chain risks are directly affecting the availability of goods. Given that most of the UK economy's GDP is linked to international trade, recently demonstrated supply chain risks in basic items such as food, clothing and electronics have had a significant impact on our quality of life. What is more, the ongoing Russian war in the Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis have placed significant new pressure on the UK government's ability to deliver low carbon futures. These factors all carry significant environmental risk for current and future generations. This characterization of the highly consequential pressures against progressive climate change strategies is not unique to the United Kingdom. The European Union is facing the same challenges as it attempts to implement its new EU Green Deal. As a consequence, from this year, the UK Parliament Environmental Audit Committee is seeking a national "War Effort" mobilization of measures to guide the UK back on to a sound low carbon future footing. Accordingly, it has emphasized significant energy efficiency measures to cut climate change impacts and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. For example, it is calling for 1 million new energy efficient installations in two years and 2.5 million such installations by the end of the decade. The Committee also wishes to further ramp-up wind, solar and tidal energy power. It also wants a specific end date for any new oil and gas licensing rounds. Unfortunately, these ambitions are without robust implementation strategies.In this surrounding, risky state of affairs, this project will use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to:1. characterize the rising environmental risks to civil society on this low carbon futures course reversal; 2. evaluate the War Effort measures in terms of their potential individual contributions towards the mitigation of environmental risks;3. critically analyse implementation deficits and opportunities in relation to the War Effort basket of low carbon measures taking account of comparative European experience;4. identify stakeholder impacts pertaining to elevated environmental risks of damage and related natural resource constraints;5. assess stakeholder and expert preferences for our low carbon futures; and,6. propose climate and environmental risk reduction measures that are consistent with contemporary UK energy security and affordability needs.