A System Dynamics Framework for the Risk Assessment and Management of Hydrogen Handling Facilities

氢将在全球实现净零排放的努力中发挥重要作用，各机构估计，到2050年，氢将提供超过10%的全球能源。为了实现这一雄心勃勃的目标，需要大规模扩大从生产、储存、运输、分销到利用的整个氢供应链。然而，由于其独特的物理化学性质，如最小的分子，因此容易通过容器壁泄漏，高可燃性和其对金属的脆化能力，氢的安全处理是一个主要问题。在化工行业，过程安全一直是一个重要的考虑因素。传统的风险分析方法侧重于物理系统，以HAZOP和HAZID研究为代表的事件链事故模型方法为主导。虽然有关氢气处理系统的安全标准仍在制定中，但最近关于该主题的大多数研究仍集中在检查风险的技术方面。尽管越来越多的证据表明，工业灾难主要是由技术系统、组织和人类行为的偏差共同造成的。

Hydrogen will play an important role in the global drive to achieve net zero with estimates by various agencies suggesting that hydrogen will provide more than 10% of global energy by 2050. To reach such an ambitious goal, a significant scale-up of the entire supply chain of hydrogen from production, storage, transportation, and distribution to utilisation is required. However, due to its characteristic physico-chemical properties such as being the smallest molecules thus prone to leaking through container walls, high combustibility and its ability to embrittle metals, safe handling of hydrogen is a major concern.Process safety has been an important consideration in the chemical industry. Traditional risk analysis methods focus on the physical systems and are dominated by the event chain accident model approach represented by the well-known HAZOP and HAZID studies. While safety standards concerning hydrogen handling systems are still being developed, most of the recent research on the topic is still focusing on examining the technical aspects of the risks. This is despite that more and more evidence shows that industrial disasters are mostly caused by a combination of deviations in a technical system, organisational and human behaviours.