Saving Motives After Retirement

描述（由申请人提供）：大多数对老年人储蓄行为的分析使用的生命周期模型版本无法复制数据中的两个关键事实：首先，一些家庭即使很老也保留了大量资产；其次，终生收入高的人比终生收入低的人储蓄率更高。该项目的目标是构建一个更丰富的生命周期模型，可以调和这两种观察结果，从最老老人的资产和健康动态（AHEAD）数据集估计模型的参数，并使用该模型来评估政策改革，如废除遗产税或改变社会保障福利。在这个提议的模式中，几个储蓄动机并存：家庭储蓄既是为了自我保险，以应对不确定的寿命和医疗费用，也是为了留下遗产。该模型还包含其他几个重要特征。不确定的收益率既影响预期资产积累，也影响已实现资产积累。该模型考虑了社会保险项目，如补充安全收入和医疗补助。穷人和富人的预期寿命不同，家庭生存动态被明确建模。模型的参数将使用模拟矩的方法从AHEAD数据集估计。该模型需要在不同的终生收入水平下匹配不同的年龄-资产概况，迫使它复制高收入和低收入家庭之间观察到的差异。一旦模型被估计出来，它将被用于经验评估其竞争特征的相对重要性，并进行各种政策实验。项目概述:

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Most analyses of the elderly's saving behavior use versions of the life cycle model that cannot replicate two key facts in the data: first, some households keep large amounts of assets even when very old; and second, people with high lifetime income save at a higher rate than those with low lifetime income. The objective of this project is to construct a richer version of the life cycle model that can reconcile both of these observations, estimate the parameters of the model from the Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old (AHEAD) dataset, and use the model to evaluate policy reforms such as abolishing the estate tax or changing Social Security benefits. Within this proposed model, several savings motives coexist: households save both to self-insure against uncertain longevity and medical expenses, and to leave bequests. The model contains several other important features. Uncertain rates of return affect both expected and realized asset accumulation. The model accounts for social insurance programs such as Supplemental Security Income and Medicaid. Poor and rich people have different life expectancies, and household survival dynamics are explicitly modeled. The model's parameters will be estimated from the AHEAD dataset, using the method of simulated moments. The model will be required to match separate age-asset profiles at different levels of lifetime income, forcing it to replicate observed differences between high and low-income households. Once the model has been estimated, it will be used to assess empirically the relative importance of its competing features, and to perform a variety of policy experiments. Project Narrative: The goal of this project is to construct and estimate a rich model of post- retirement saving that better describes the saving patterns of the elderly. Within our proposed model, elderly households would face uncertain longevity and out-of-pocket medical expenses, but would also receive financial protection from social insurance programs such as Medicaid. Modeling all of these features will allow us to study how medical concerns affect the saving of the elderly, and to analyze the savings impact of various medical policy proposals.