Impact of Poor Health and HV/AIDS on Small Businesses in South Africa

描述(申请人提供)：微型和小型企业(MSE)是南部非洲发展中国家的重要就业来源和国内生产总值的贡献者，但疾病和健康状况不佳是经济发展的主要威胁。该项目将通过调查所有者或管理者的健康状况与南非中小企业的经济业绩之间的关系而开辟新的天地。它将处理一般疾病，特别是艾滋病，探讨疾病对就业和收入增长的直接影响，以及对所有者或经理未来导向的间接影响。基于一种新的生产行为理论，它将检验这样一种假设，即关键所有者或经理健康水平的下降往往会对社区中其他员工和消费者的福祉产生不利影响。这种影响与从事团队生产对时间敏感的商品和服务的企业有关，在这些企业中，很难更换关键人员。通过在南非艾滋病毒高流行的三个省进行两波家庭调查，该项目将通过将关于MSE启动、增长率和退出的信息与所有者或经理的健康水平和变化的衡量标准相结合来收集独特的数据。数据分析将(1)确定所有者或经理健康状况不佳(和艾滋病)对中小企业的总体影响，(2)衡量所有者或经理的主观和客观艾滋病毒状况对其未来投资计划的影响，以及(3)通过所有者的特征(例如，年龄、种族和性别)、企业(例如，企业的规模或类型)和地点(例如，城市与农村)估计影响的差异。数据将用两部分模型进行分析，一部分考察考虑生存的中小企业经济活动，另一部分分析中小企业生存的可能性。结果将表明，一些中小企业的经济利益是否特别容易受到健康威胁。它们将有助于预测卫生变化对该部门经济活动的影响，并为疾病预防和治疗分配资源。 在南非，与公共健康相关的小企业贡献了近50%的就业机会和30%的GDP，但健康状况不佳和艾滋病对这些企业的影响记录很少。通过对南非三个艾滋病毒流行率不同的省份中以非洲人为主的城镇的小企业主和经理进行的两波纵向调查，该项目将调查总体健康状况不佳，特别是艾滋病毒/艾滋病对这些小企业的生存、业绩和投资决策的影响。研究结果将有助于预测健康变化对该部门经济活动的影响，并为疾病预防和治疗分配资源。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are an important source of employment and contributor to GDP in developing countries in southern Africa, but illness and poor health are major threats to economic development. This project will break new ground by investigating the relationship between health status of owners or managers and the economic performance of MSEs in South Africa. It will deal with illnesses in general and with AIDS in particular, exploring the direct effect of illness on both employment and revenue growth and the indirect effect on the owner or manager's future orientedness. Based on a novel theory of production behavior, it will test the hypothesis that a reduction in health for key owners or managers will often adversely affect the well being of other employees and consumers in the community. Such effects occur in connection with businesses engaged in team production of time-sensitive goods and services where replacement of the key person is difficult. Through a two-wave household survey in three provinces of South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the project will collect unique data by combining information on MSE starts, growth rates, and exits with measures of owner or manager health level and change. Data analysis will (1) determine the overall impact of poor owner or manager health (and AIDS) on MSEs, (2) measure the impact of owner or manager's subjective and objective HIV status on their investment plans for the future, and (3) estimate the differences in impacts by characteristics of the owner (e.g., age, race, and gender), of the business (e.g., size or type of business), and of the location (e.g., urban vs. rural). Data will be analyzed with a two-part model, one part examining MSE economic activity given survival, and the other analyzing the probability of MSE survival. The results will show whether the economic benefits from some MSEs are especially vulnerable to health threats. They will be useful for predicting the effect of changes in health on economic activity in this sector, and for allocating resources for disease prevention and treatment. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE Small businesses contribute almost 50 percent of total employment and 30 percent of GDP in South Africa, but the impact of poor health and AIDS on these businesses is poorly documented. Using two waves of longitudinal survey of owners and managers of small businesses from predominantly African townships in three provinces in South Africa with varying HIV prevalence, this project will investigate the impact of poor health in general and HIV/AIDS in particular on the survival, performance, and investment decisions of these small businesses. The results will be useful for predicting the effect of changes in health on economic activity in this sector, and for allocating resources for disease prevention and treatment.