Forecasting drought impacts months ahead using satellite data

熟练的季节性水和作物预报可以在很大程度上帮助应对干旱和与水有关的粮食危机。水文模拟和地表土壤湿度、景观储水量和植被生物量卫星遥感的最新进展为在大范围内进行这种预报创造了很大的机会。本项目将利用这一机会，将卫星观测资料纳入全球水和植被预报模式。将对河流流量、土壤湿度和作物产量的季节性预报进行量化，并与目前有限的预报进行比较。

Skillful seasonal water and crop forecasts could do much to help cope with drought and water-related food crises. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and satellite remote sensing of surface soil moisture, landscape water storage and vegetation biomass have created a great opportunity to produce such forecasts over large areas. This project will exploit that opportunity by assimilating the satellite observations into a global water and vegetation forecasting model. The resulting improvement in seasonal forecasts of stream flow, soil moisture and crop production will be quantified and compared to the limited forecasts that are currently available.