Heat waves in the UK: impacts and public health responses

2003年8月，一场严重的热浪在法国造成14 000多人死亡，在邻国造成更多人死亡。英国幸运地遭受了较少的压迫和较少的无情温度，但仍有约2，000人死亡。由于全球变暖，英国经历类似热浪的机会正在增加，法国的教训是，我们的公共卫生系统可能没有做好应对这种威胁的准备。受法国经验的启发，英国卫生部于2004年启动了一项热浪计划。它的规定包括公共卫生警告和有针对性的建议和行动，以保护那些风险最大的人。我们建议的研究旨在提供证据，以帮助改善如何使这一热浪计划最有效。我们的分析将量化不同人群的热浪相关风险水平，从而确定可能采取特定保护措施的高风险群体对热浪的脆弱性集中程度。我们还将估计现在和未来几年发生危险热浪的风险，并评估如何在早期阶段最好地检测不断变化的热浪威胁。一些（主要是老年人）人及其照顾者将接受采访，以了解他们对热浪的风险和反应的知识。我们还将通过与主要利益相关者（包括卫生和社会护理专业人员、社区志愿者和住宅管理人员）的半结构化访谈，评估当前热浪计划的运作情况。该计划的成本效益将根据自该计划实施以来热浪期间发生的热死人数变化的证据进行评估。研究结果将与参与热浪规划的政策制定者和主要公共卫生专业人员进行讨论，以得出结论，说明卫生部门、社交及其他服务可以得到改善，研究结果将通过非技术性网络报告和研究小组成员参加以政策为重点的会议向公众公布。

In August 2003, a severe heat wave resulted in the deaths of more than 14,000 people in France and of many more in neighbouring countries. The UK was fortunate in suffering less oppressive and less unrelenting temperatures, but there were still around 2,000 deaths. Because of global warming, the chance of experiencing a similar heat wave in Britain is increasing, and the lesson from France is that our public health systems may not have been well-prepared to respond to such a threat.Prompted by the experience of France, the Department of Health launched a heat wave plan for England in 2004. Its provisions include public health warnings and targeted advice and actions to protect those at greatest risk. The study we propose is aimed at providing evidence to help improve how this heat wave plan can be most effective.Our analyses will quantify the level of heat-related risk for different sections of the population, and so determine the degree to which vulnerability to heat waves is concentrated in high-risk groups that may be targeted by specific protection measures. We will also estimate the risk of dangerous heat waves occurring now and in future years, and assess how we can best detect evolving heat wave threats at an early stage.A number of (mainly elderly) people and their carers will be interviewed to understand what knowledge they have about the risks and responses to heat waves. We will also assess the operation of the current heat wave plan through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, including health and social care professionals, community voluntary workers, and residential home managers. Its cost-effectiveness will be assessed using evidence about the change in the number of heat-deaths occurring during heat waves since the plan was implemented.The results of the research will be discussed with policy makers and key public health professionals involved in heat wave planning to draw conclusions about how the needed responses of the health, social and other services can be improved.The results will be made available to the public through non-technical web reports and participation of research team members in policy-focused meetings.