The mechanisms of progressive landslides: Kashmir study (URGENCY APPLICATION)

滑坡是一种极具破坏性的地质现象，每年在全世界造成1万多人死亡和200亿美元的经济损失。与许多其他灾害一样，山崩造成的生命损失和经济损失随着时间的推移而增加，一般来说，全球社会最贫穷的阶层受到的影响最大。不幸的是，目前我们对斜坡内发生的导致破坏的过程的理解相当薄弱。除非我们掌握了这方面的知识，否则很难预测未来何时何地会发生山体滑坡，也很难建立有效和可靠的中短期预警系统。2005年10月8日袭击巴基斯坦的克什米尔地震引发了数千次山体滑坡。其中一些非常大，最大的是在Hattian，将一个村庄埋在245米的碎片中。据认为，山体滑坡造成了大约86，000人死亡中的大约20，000人死亡。这些山体滑坡继续对受影响地区的生活造成严重破坏。然而，令人惊讶的是，实际触发的山体滑坡数量远远低于通常预期的陡峭山区发生这种规模的地震。这很可能是因为地震前后的天气状况异常干燥，这意味着地下水位一直很低。然而，我们在2006年1月进行的勘察发现，受影响地区的许多斜坡因地震而发生了广泛的剪切和变形，因此很可能在未来倒塌。由于克什米尔是季风气候，这最有可能发生在2006年7月，当时降雨最强烈。因此，克什米尔地震造成了一系列独特的情况，其中大规模山体滑坡的位置和可能的时间是可以预测的。我们会利用这个机会，在其中四个斜坡设立监察系统。该系统将在每个滑坡的四个点上测量斜坡随时间的移动。这些数据将由每个站点的雨量计信息补充，以便我们知道与移动事件相关的降雨量。我们还将使用地面激光扫描系统来测量斜坡的几何形状和形态（形状），并使用常规测绘来了解地质。目的是观察斜坡走向最终破坏时的加速和减速模式，并确定在最终坍塌之前发生了多少运动。这些结果将用于评估我们现有的滑坡运动模型，并改进和提高它们。此外，我们希望巴基斯坦当局能够在短期和中期内使用我们的仪器，为即将发生的崩溃提供基本的预警系统。

Landslides are a highly destructive geological phenomena that are responsible for over 10,000 fatalities and $20 billion of economic loss per year worldwide. As with many other hazards, the impact of landslides in terms both of loss of lives and financial cost is increasing with time, and in general the largest impacts are felt by the poorest sectors of the global society. Unfortunately, at present our understanding of the processes that occur within a slope to cause failure is rather weak. Until we develop this knowledge it will be difficult to forecast where and when landslides will occur in the future, and to develop effective and reliable short- and medium-term warning systems. The Kashmir Earthquake, which struck Pakistan on 8th October 2005, triggered several thousand landslides. Some of these were very large, with the biggest, at Hattian, burying a village in 245 m of debris. It is thought that the landslides were responsible for about 20,000 deaths out of a total of about 86,000. These landslides continue to cause major disruption to life in the affected area. However, surprisingly the number of landslides that were actually triggered is much lower than would normally be expected for an earthquake of this size in a steep, mountainous area. It is likely that this is because the weather conditions before and indeed after the earthquake were exceptionally dry, which has meant that the water table has been low. However, our reconnaissance visit in January 2006 showed that many slopes across the affected area have extensively sheared and deformed by the earthquake, and are thus likely to fail in the future. As Kashmir has a monsoonal climate, this is most likely to occur in July 2006 when the rainfall as it its most intense. Thus, the Kashmir earthquake has created a unique set of circumstances in which the location and likely timing of large-scale landslides are predictable. We seek to use this opportunity by setting up a monitoring system on four of these slopes. This system will measure the movement of the slope with time at four points for each landslide. These data will be complemented by rain gauge information at each site, so that we know how much rain is associated with the movement events. We will also use a terrestrial laser scanning system to measure the geometry and morphology (shape) of the slopes, and conventional mapping to understand the geology. The aim is to look at the patterns of acceleration and deceleration as the slopes move towards final failure, and to determine how much movement occurs before final collapse. These results will be used to assess our existing models of landslide movement, and to refine and enhance them. In addition, we hope that our instruments can be used in the short- and medium-term by the Pakistan authorities to provide a basic warning system of impending collapses.