Evolvability of breeding phenology in birds: predicting the evolutionary consequences of climate change

在监测、理解和预测生态后果方面存在着极大的科学兴趣，一系列引人注目的研究已经证明了物种地理分布、种群稳定性和生物事件发生时间的变化。然而，到目前为止，这些研究通常集中在种群的当前生态上，而必然不得不忽视物种为应对气候变化而进化的潜力。这项研究的总体目标是了解人口在应对气候变化时的进化程度和速度。这项研究是基于气候变化的生态后果的一个经典例子，即全球变暖和欧洲野生鸟类较早开始繁殖活动之间的联系。最近的几项研究已经在温带种群中证明了这种“早春”现象，但迄今为止，关于繁殖时间变化或种群为应对气候变化而进化的速度变化对个体适应性的影响的详细研究相对较少。本项目将通过对雀形目鸟类野生种群进行长期系谱研究，并结合育种物候学的实验现场操作，来克服这些不足。通过实验提前和推迟个体鸟类的繁殖时间，我们将(i)揭示繁殖物候和猎物可得性之间不匹配的长期适应度后果，（ii）确定个体在繁殖物候和猎物可得性同步方面的优化程度，以及（iii）测试繁殖日期和卵数之间的相互作用。然后，通过使用我们现有的遗传谱系和巢穴间杂交培育后代的信息，我们将（iv）估计遗传因素决定繁殖物候和猎物可用性之间不匹配的能力的程度，以及(v)估计种群能够响应持续环境变化的进化速度。该项目解决了NERC的主要研究重点之一，即预测气候变化的生态后果。该项目还调查了决定对环境变化的长期适应能力的因素，这是NERC关注复杂自然系统中生物多样性维持的重要组成部分。

There is great scientific interest in monitoring, understanding and predicting the ecological consequences, with a series of high-profile studies having demonstrated shifts in the geographic distribution of species, the stability of populations, and the timing of biological events. To date, however, these studies have typically focussed on the current ecology of populations and have necessarily had to ignore the potential for species to evolve in response to climate change. The overall aim of this study is to understand the extent to which, and the speed with which, populations can be expected to evolve in response to climate change. The study is based on a classic example of the ecological consequences of climate change, namely the association between global warming and the earlier onset of breeding activity in a wild population of European birds. Several recent studies have demonstrated this 'early spring' phenomenon in temperate populations, but as yet there have been relatively few detailed studies of the individual fitness consequences of changes in the timing of breeding or the speed with which populations can be expected to evolve to cope with a changing climate. This project will overcome these shortfalls by combining experimental field manipulations of breeding phenology with a long-term pedigree on a wild populations of a passerine bird. By experimentally advancing and delaying the timing of breeding of individual birds we will (i) reveal the long-term fitness consequences of mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability, (ii) identify the extent of individual optimization in breeding phenology and synchrony with prey availability, and (iii) test for interactions between breeding date and clutch size. Then, by using our existing genetic pedigree and information on cross-fostering off offspring between nests, we will (iv) estimate the extent to which the ability to cope with mismatches between breeding phenology and prey availability are determined by genetic factors, and (v) estimate the rate at which the population will be able to evolve in response to ongoing environmental change. This project tackles one of NERC's main research priorities, namely predicting the ecological consequences of climate change. The project also investigates factors that determine long-term resilience to environmental change, which are an important part of NERC's focus on the maintenance of biodiversity in complex natural systems.