Modeling lymphatic filariasis transmission and eradication in Papua New Guinea

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的主要目的是促进对按蚊传播淋巴丝虫病（LF）的流行病学的理解，以及在巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）和其他地方使用年度大规模药物管理（MDA）策略进行控制，并开发和应用有效的基于模型的决策支持工具，以优化社区层面寄生虫控制的设计和评估。该研究将利用最近资助的NIH ICIDR计划收集的过去和新的现场数据，关于基于MDA的策略的影响，包括在MDA中增加媒介控制，对巴布亚新几内亚流行社区的丝虫病传播，以实现四个具体目标：1）开发和验证专门用于描述巴布亚新几内亚按蚊LF种群动态的数学模型，2）通过对衍生模型的确定性版本与随机版本进行比较分析，估计和验证干预终点，3）测试基于MDA的战略的影响的模型预测，包括MDA加上使用经杀虫剂处理的蚊帐进行病媒控制，使用新的ICIDR方案收集的关于这些干预措施效果的经验数据，以及4）开发和实施一个软件工具，将构建的模型与地方病流行地点的数据联系起来，以促进进行最佳规划，LF控制计划的评估和管理。因此，拟议的研究将基于现有的实地数据，并由该项目的合作者收集LF干预措施，这些数据的分析/建模以及描述人类和病媒种群感染动态的数据（后者的数据将通过本项目中的病媒喂养实验收集）和理论分析。这项对全球LF消除计划至关重要的工作的主要产出将是：1）基于各种感染标志物，开发按蚊媒介传播LF的模型，2）推导寄生虫消除的终点，3）开发基于模型的评估方案，以评估方案的有效性，4）采用人口动态方法对LF控制战略进行经济评估，5）对通过驱虫蚊帐将病媒控制纳入MDA方案进行动态评估，6）建立了一个模型和数据集成的软件工具，用于辅助LF控制程序的优化设计和评估。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The chief aims of this project are to advance understanding of the epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission by anopheline mosquitoes and its control using annual mass drug administration (MDA) strategies in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and elsewhere, and to develop and apply effective model-based decision support tools for optimizing the design and evaluation of parasite control at the community level. The research will take advantage of past and new field data to be collected by a recently funded NIH ICIDR program, on the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including the addition of vector control to MDA, on filariasis transmission in PNG endemic communities, in order to meet four specific aims: 1) development and validation of a mathematical model specific to describing the population dynamics of LF by anopheline mosquitoes in PNG, 2) estimation and validation of intervention endpoints via the comparative analysis of deterministic versus stochastic versions of the derived model, 3) testing model predictions of the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including MDA plus vector control by the use of Insecticide-Treated Bednets (ITNs), using empirical data on the effects of these interventions collected by the new ICIDR program, and 4) development and implementation of a software tool linking the constructed model and data from endemic sites to facilitate the undertaking of optimal planning, evaluation and management of LF control programs. The proposed research will thus be based on field data available and to be collected by the collaborators on this project on LF interventions, the analyses/modeling of these data and data describing infection dynamics in both the human and vector populations (data on the latter to be collected by conducting vector feeding experiments in this project), and theoretical analyses. The major outputs from this work of vital significance to the global LF elimination program will be: 1) the development of models of LF transmission by anopheline vectors based on various markers of infection, 2) the derivation of endpoints for parasite elimination, 3) the development of model-based evaluation protocols for assessing program effectiveness, 4) the taking of a population dynamic approach to economic assessments of LF control strategies, 5) the dynamic evaluation of including vector control via ITNs to MDA programs, and 6) the construction of a model- and data- integrated software tool for aiding the optimal design and evaluation of LF control programs.