Baseline Microdata for Analysis of U.S. Demographic Change

项目摘要 这项提案寻求资金，以利用这一难得的机会建立一个人口数据库 包括1850年美国的所有居民。这个庞大的新数据库将填补一个关键的空白， 美国人口数据基础设施。1850年的数据收集将为以下研究提供基线： 在美国开始有意识的生育控制和死亡率下降之前，生育率和死亡率。 作为最早的国家微观数据资源，该数据库也将是对以下研究的初步观察： 移民、劳动力市场、财富分配、残疾、教育以及其他一系列经济和社会问题， 人口问题。一个包含1850年人口普查的数据库将开启一系列新的研究 研究长期人口变化的主题和方法， 对高龄老人进行多层次的分析。 完整的计数1850年数据库是可行的，因为一个显着的数据收集工作的教会 耶稣基督后期圣徒（LDS）。该倡议涉及约50，000名LDS志愿者 他花了100多万个小时抄写了2300万份1850年的人口普查记录， 人口，奴隶，以及人口普查前一年的死亡人数。LDS已同意提供这些 免费建立和传播科学研究数据库， 教育目的。该项目的第一个目标是增加和清洁1850年的原材料 人口普查，增加遗漏的变量和提高数据质量。第二个目标是将这些 将增强后的数据转换成适合统计分析的数据，并将其与现有数据整合 由明尼苏达州人口中心发布。 旧的人口普查数据并不纯粹具有历史意义;它们是基础社会研究的重要工具， 政策分析基于历史经验的模型和描述是过去理论的基础 变化和对未来的预测。这些数据为经济研究提供了一个独特的实验室。 和人口过程。这种经验基础对于检验社会经济的发展水平是必不可少的。 理论该数据库直接关系到NIH作为医疗和健康管理者的中心使命， 国家行为研究：新的数据将促进对自然的基本知识， 人类种群动力学行为。这一基本基础设施将促进与健康有关的研究， 人口增长和流动、生育率、死亡率和结婚率，以及经济和社会 与人口统计学行为的相关性 1

Project Summary This proposal seeks funding to capitalize on an extraordinary opportunity to create a demographic database comprising all residents of the United States in 1850. This massive new database will fill a critical gap in American population data infrastructure. The 1850 data collection will provide a baseline for studies of fertility and mortality in the United States before the onset of deliberate fertility control and mortality decline. As the earliest national microdata resource, the database will also be the initial observation for studies of migration, labor markets, wealth distribution, disability, education, and a host of other economic and demographic issues. A database incorporating the entire 1850 census will open an array of new research topics and methodological approaches to the study of long-run demographic change, ranging from the study of the oldest-old to multi-level analysis. The complete-count 1850 database is feasible because of a remarkable data-collection effort by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (LDS). This initiative involved approximately 50,000 LDS volunteers who invested over one million hours to transcribe 23 million 1850 census records describing the free population, slaves, and deaths in the year prior to the census. The LDS has agreed to provide these remarkable resources free of charge to create and disseminate a database for scientific research and educational purposes. The first goal of the project is to augment and clean raw transcriptions of the 1850 censuses, adding omitted variables and improving data quality. The second goal is to transform these enhanced transcriptions into a data suitable for statistical analysis, and integrate them with the existing data collections disseminated by the Minnesota Population Center. Old census data are not of purely historical interest; they are essential tools for basic social research and policy analysis. Models and descriptions based on historical experience underlie both theories of past change and projections into the future. These data provide a unique laboratory for the study of economic and demographic processes. This kind of empirical foundation is essential for testing social and economic theory. This database is directly relevant to the central mission of the NIH as the steward of medical and behavioral research for the nation: the new data will advance fundamental knowledge about the nature and behavior of human population dynamics. This basic infrastructure will stimulate health-related research on population growth and movement, fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, as well as the economic and social correlates of demographic behavior. 1