Dynamic Inference

我们建议通过将每个问题分成可管理的单元来提高我们对登革热和脊髓灰质炎流行病学和免疫学的重要决定因素的理解。通过对来自不同国家的长期、空间复制、特定血清型和特定年龄数据的多种备选假设进行全面比较，我们将确定免疫的性质和持续时间、重复感染的流行病学影响、亚临床免疫增强所起的作用，以及人口统计学、季节性和人类接触网络结构的各自贡献。脊髓灰质炎研究的另一个关键阶段将侧重于疫苗使用(口服或灭活脊髓灰质炎疫苗)和免疫覆盖率已知的时间段，以解决与疫苗有关的问题。最终，我们的发现将产生经经验验证的传播模型，以满足登革热和脊髓灰质炎的紧急政策需求。这项工作将在很大程度上依赖于使用传播的数学模型和统计方法，从包括空间、年龄、血清型或气候驱动因素在内的高维数据中提取信息。因此，该项目的一个主要组成部分是开发、使用和传播将在开放源码公共软件中实施的新的方法工具。最后，我们将汇集这一努力的智力成果，以制定最佳、成本效益高的免疫政策。

We propose to improve our understanding of the important determinants of dengue and polio epidemiology and immunology by splitting each problem into manageable units. By conducting a comprehensive comparison of multiple alternative hypotheses on long-term, spatially replicated, serotype-specific and age-specific data from different countries, we will pin down the nature and duration of immunity, the epidemiological impact of repeat infections, the role played by sub-clinical immune boosting, and the respective contributions of population demography, seasonality, and the structure of the human contact network. A key additional phase for polio research will aim to address the vaccine-related aspects of the problem by focusing on time periods with known vaccine usage (oral or inactivated polio vaccine) and immunization coverage. Ultimately, our findings will generate transmission models that are empirically validated for answering urgent policy needs for both dengue and polio. This work will rely heavily on the use of mathematical models of transmission and statistical methods for extracting information from high-dimensional data, encompassing space, age, serotype or climatic drivers. A major ingredient in this project, therefore, is the development, use, and dissemination of novel methodological tools that will be implemented in open-source public software. Finally, we will bring together the intellectual fruits of this effort to develop optimal, cost-effective immunization policy