Modeling quantum change in adolescent sexual initiation and condom use

描述(申请人提供)：模拟青春期性行为和避孕套使用的数量变化)更好地了解青少年的早期性行为和避孕套使用对于预防艾滋病毒传播具有重要意义。根据双过程系统理论，人类的行为在很大程度上由两个决策系统决定。系统1是经常用于例行或快速决策(例如，在紧急情况下或在压力下)的认知机制；系统2是通过仔细权衡备选方案的利弊而较少用于基于规则的决策的认知机制。根据这一理论，青少年关于性行为和避孕套使用的决定可能包含由系统1执行的快速过程和由系统2执行的渐进过程。分析表明，由系统1操作的行为变化将被视为“离散的”，因为这些变化是快速的，给人一种不假思索地执行的感觉。由System 2执行的行为变化将被视为“持续的”，因为批判性思维和仔细评估需要时间。指导我们过去大部分研究的行为理论和模型都集中在连续变化上，而对离散变化基本没有影响。人类行为中连续和离散过程的共存在文献中被称为量子行为变化(QBC)，因为它们类似于物理学中众所周知的光的波和粒子的双重特征。通过QBC方法的应用，艾滋病毒行为研究可能会得到推进。对行为的QBC性质的调查需要能够同时对连续和离散过程建模的方法；到目前为止，这样的方法还没有很好地建立。尖点突变建模是一种很有前途的方法，但该估计方法的一些局限性阻碍了其在HIV行为研究中的应用。在双过程系统理论的指导下，我们将(1)扩展和改进尖点突变模型的估计方法；(2)使用改进的方法来模拟不同的风险和干预情景，以获得对青少年性行为和避孕套使用行为的复杂动态的新见解；(3)使用相同的方法来分析1997年全国青年纵向调查数据，以调查与危险和安全性行为相关的因素，以及我们进行的两项由NIH资助的随机试验的数据，以重新评估计划的效果；以及(4)开发支持使用尖点突变模型方法的统计软件，使其免费提供给研究人员。一个由行为科学家和方法学家组成的团队已经组建，并处于有利地位，可以开展拟议的研究。据我们所知，这个项目是第一个使用尖点突变建模方法并以双过程系统理论为指导来解决青春期性风险行为的QBC性质的项目。该项目的预期结果将(1)增加新的数据，进一步加深我们对青少年艾滋病毒危险行为的理解，并支持更有效的降低风险的干预措施，以及(2)为研究人员提供新的范式和分析工具，以推进他们的研究议程。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Modeling quantum change in adolescent sexual initiation and condom use) A better understanding of early sexual initiation and condom use among adolescents is of great significance for prevention of HIV transmission. According to the dual-process systems theory, human behaviors are determined largely by two decision making systems. System 1 is a cognitive mechanism frequently used for routine or quick decisions (e.g., in emergency or under pressure); System 2 is a cognitive mechanism less frequently used for rule-based decisions by carefully weighing pros and cons of alternatives. According to this theory, adolescents' decisions regarding sex and condom use may contain both quick processes executed by System 1 and a gradual processes executed by System 2. Analytically, behavioral changes operated by System 1 will be seen as "discrete" because these changes are rapid, giving the appearance of having been executed without thinking. Behavioral changes executed by System 2 will be seen as "continuous" because critical thinking and careful assessment take time. Behavioral theories and models guiding much of our past research have focused on continuous changes, leaving discrete changes largely untouched. The co-existence of continuous and discrete processes in human behavior has been termed "quantum behavior change" (QBC) in the literature given their similarity to the well-known dual characteristics of waves and particles of light ray in physics. HIV behavior research may be advanced through the application of the QBC approach. The investigation of the QBC nature of a behavior requires methodologies capable of simultaneously modeling both continuous and discrete process; to date, such methods have not been well established. Cusp catastrophe modeling represents a promising approach, but several limitations of the estimation method prevent its use in HIV behavior research. Guided by the dual-process systems theory, in this project we will (1) extend and improve the estimation methods for cusp catastrophe modeling; (2) employ the improved methodology to simulate different risk and intervention scenarios to gain new insight into the complex dynamics of adolescents' sexual initiation and condom use behavior; (3) employ the same methodology to analyze the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 data to investigate factors associated with risky and safer sex, and data from two NIH-funded randomized trials we conducted to re-assess program effect; and (4) develop statistical software supporting the use of cusp catastrophe modeling method, making it available without charge to researchers. A team consisting of behavioral scientists and methodologists is assembled and well positioned to carry out the proposed research. To the best of our knowledge, this project is the first to address the QBC nature of adolescent sexual risk behavior using the cusp catastrophe modeling method and guided by the dual- process systems theory. Expected findings of this project will (1) add new data furthering our understanding of adolescent HIV risk behaviors and supporting more effective interventions for risk reduction and (2) provide new paradigms and analytical tools for researchers to advance their research agenda.