Evaluating the Effect of E-cigarette Policies on Youth Tobacco Use

摘要 近年来，青少年电子烟使用率大幅上升，2020年达到19.8%。状态 市政府已经通过了香料禁令，电子烟税和烟草21法律，部分是为了 应对这些高比例的年轻人使用电子烟。我们研究议程的长期目标是提供 通过识别电子烟的预期和非预期影响， 电子烟政策具体来说，我们目前的更新申请的目标是使用准实验性的 方法（例如，差异中的差异），以评估当代烟草政策的香料禁令，烟草21 法律，以及新的电子烟税收计划。我们将使用来自Truth Longitudinal的高质量，可重复的数据 队列研究、烟草与健康的人口评估、监测未来和青年危险行为 监测系统估计：（一）不同强度的口味禁令对青少年电子烟的影响 使用，可燃烟草产品的使用，以及对剩余合法可用的香料替代 烟草制品;（二）烟草21法律对青少年电子烟使用，可燃烟草制品使用的影响 (e.g.,香烟，雪茄，水烟），以及电子烟的来源;以及（iii）电子烟税的影响，包括 新的电子烟税收计划的销售税和两级税，对青年电子烟的使用和可燃 烟草制品的使用。我们的项目是通过仔细研究青年电子烟的高比率， 在美国的替代可燃烟草产品;确定政策，以减少与烟草有关的 疾病和死亡（美国可预防死亡的主要原因）;通过外部贡献- 对多达330个州和市的风味限制的风味禁令影响的有效估计 目前对各种各样的调味和非调味烟草产品的结果;通过仔细考虑 风味禁令的强度，包括所涵盖的产品，所涵盖的风味和零售商豁免;通过考虑 关于新类型电子烟税收的税收显着性问题;并成为第一批研究电子烟影响的人之一。 关于青少年电子烟使用和青少年获得电子烟的21项法律。我们的项目是创新的， 使用尖端的准实验方法，旨在模拟随机对照试验，包括新的 针对异质性治疗效果的存在而设计的方法;第一个使用Truth Longitudinal 用于准实验研究的队列研究数据和烟草与健康人口评估数据; 提供一个标准化电子烟税收数据库;通过提供一个关于异质处理的研讨会 有效的方法;并通过跨经济部门的合作，一个领先的烟草控制非政府组织， 政府组织（真相倡议），以及政策，公共卫生和医学学校。真相倡议 将利用其广泛的外联和宣传基础设施领导我们的传播工作。

Abstract Youth current e-cigarette use rates have dramatically increased in recent years, reaching 19.8% in 2020. State and municipal governments have passed flavor bans, e-cigarette taxes, and Tobacco 21 laws in part to respond to these high rates of youth e-cigarette use. The long-term goal of our research agenda is to provide information that will allow for optimal regulation of e-cigarettes by identifying intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette policies. Specifically, the objective of our current renewal application is to use quasi-experimental methods (e.g., difference-in-differences) to evaluate contemporary tobacco policies of flavor bans, Tobacco 21 laws, and new e-cigarette tax schema. We will use high quality, reproducible data from the Truth Longitudinal Cohort Study, Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health, Monitoring the Future, and Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System to estimate: (i) the effect of flavor bans with varying levels of strength on youth e-cigarette use, combustible tobacco product use, and substitution towards the remaining legally available flavored tobacco products; (ii) the effect of Tobacco 21 laws on youth e-cigarette use, combustible tobacco product use (e.g., cigarettes, cigars, hookahs), and source of e-cigarettes; and (iii) the effect of e-cigarette taxes, including new e-cigarette tax schema of sales taxes and two-tier taxes, on youth e-cigarette use and combustible tobacco product use. Our project is significant by carefully examining high rates of youth e-cigarette and alternative combustible tobacco products in the United States; identifying policies to reduce tobacco-related disease and death (the leading cause of preventable death in the United States); by contributing externally- valid estimates of the effect of flavor bans from as many as 330 state and municipality flavor restrictions currently on a wide variety of both flavored and unflavored tobacco product outcomes; by carefully considering the strength of flavor bans including products covered, flavors covered, and retailer exemptions; by considering questions on tax saliency for new types of e-cigarette taxes; and by being among the first to study the effect of Tobacco 21 laws on youth e-cigarette use and where youth obtain e-cigarettes. Our project is innovative by using cutting-edge quasi-experimental methods designed to mimic a randomized control trial including newer methods designed for the presence of heterogenous treatment effects; being the first to use Truth Longitudinal Cohort study data and Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health data for quasi-experimental research; by providing a database of standardized e-cigarette taxes; by providing a workshop on heterogenous treatment effect methods; and by collaborating across economics departments, a leading tobacco control non- governmental organization (Truth Initiative), and schools of policy, public health, and medicine. Truth Initiative will lead our dissemination efforts using their extensive outreach and advocacy infrastructure.