Impact of Poor Health & AIDS on Small Businesses in SA

描述：微型和小型企业(MSE)是 发展中国家就业与GDP(国内生产总值)贡献者 南部非洲的国家，但疾病和健康状况不佳是对 经济发展。这个项目将通过调查 业主或管理者的健康状况与经济状况的关系 中小企业在南非的表现。它将处理一般的疾病和 特别是艾滋病，并将探讨对这两个就业的直接影响 以及收入增长和对信贷成本的间接影响。基于一个 新的生产行为理论，它将检验一个假设 关键所有者或管理者健康状况的下降通常会对 社区中其他员工和消费者的福祉。这样的影响 发生与从事团队生产的企业有关的事件 在更换关键人员的情况下，对时间敏感的商品和服务 很难。通过在南方三省进行两波家庭调查 在艾滋病毒高流行的非洲，该项目将在以下时间收集独特的数据 将有关MSE启动、增长率和退出的信息与 所有者或经理的健康水平和更改。数据分析将(1)确定 所有者或经理健康状况不佳(和艾滋病)对中小企业的总体影响，(2)衡量 社区层面所有者或管理者健康(和艾滋病)差异的影响 关于中小企业融资的可获得性，以及(3)估计 业主的特征(例如，年龄、种族和性别)、 业务(例如，业务规模或类型)和位置(例如，城市与 农村)。数据将用两部分模型进行分析，一部分检查MSE 经济活动假设生存，而另一个则分析 MSE生存。结果将表明，是否从一些 中小企业尤其容易受到健康威胁。它们将对以下方面有用 预测健康变化对该部门经济活动的影响， 以及用于疾病预防和治疗的资源分配。

DESCRIPTION: Micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are an important source of employment and contributor to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in developing countries in southern Africa, but illness and poor health are major threats to economic development. This project will break new ground by investigating the relationship between health status of owners or managers and the economic performance of MSEs in South Africa. It will deal with illnesses in general and with AIDS in particular, and will explore the direct effect on both employment and revenue growth and the indirect effect on the cost of credit. Based on a novel theory of production behavior, it will test the hypothesis that a reduction in health for key owners or managers will often adversely affect the well being of other employees and consumers in the community. Such effects occur in connection with businesses engaged in team production of time-sensitive goods and services where replacement of the key person is difficult. Through a two-wave household survey in three provinces of South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the project will collect unique data by combining information on MSE starts, growth rates, and exits with measures of owner or manager health level and change. Data analysis will (1) determine the overall impact of poor owner or manager health (and AIDS) on MSEs, (2) measure the impact of community-level variations in owner or manager health (and AIDS) on the availability of financing for MSEs, and (3) estimate the differences in impacts by characteristics of the owner (e.g., age, race, and gender), of the business (e.g., size or type of business), and of the location (e.g., urban vs. rural). Data will be analyzed with a two-part model, one part examining MSE economic activity given survival, and the other analyzing the probability of MSE survival. The results will show whether the economic benefits from some MSEs are especially vulnerable to health threats. They will be useful for predicting the effect of changes in health on economic activity in this sector, and for allocating resources for disease prevention and treatment.