Modeling lymphatic filariasis transmission and eradication in Papua New Guinea

描述(由申请人提供)：该项目的主要目的是促进对淋巴丝虫病(LF)通过按蚊传播的流行病学及其在巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)和其他地方使用年度大规模药物管理(MDA)战略控制的了解，并开发和应用有效的基于模型的决策支持工具，以优化社区层面的寄生虫控制设计和评估。这项研究将利用最近资助的NIH ICIDR项目收集的过去和新的现场数据，关于基于丙二醛的策略对巴新流行社区丝虫病传播的影响，包括在丙二醛中增加病媒控制，以实现四个具体目标：1)开发和验证专门描述巴新按蚊LF种群动态的数学模型，2)通过对衍生模型的确定性和随机版本的比较分析来估计和验证干预终点，3)测试基于丙二醛的策略的影响预测，包括使用驱虫蚊帐(ITN)进行丙二醛加病媒控制，使用新的ICIDR方案收集的关于这些干预措施效果的经验数据，以及4)开发和实施一个软件工具，将所构建的模型与来自流行地点的数据联系起来，以促进对低频疾病控制方案的最佳规划、评估和管理。因此，拟议的研究将基于现有的和将由该项目合作者收集的关于LF干预的现场数据、对这些数据的分析/建模以及描述人类和媒介人群感染动态的数据(关于后者的数据将通过在该项目中进行媒介喂养实验来收集)，以及理论分析。这项工作对全球低频消除方案具有重要意义的主要成果将是：1)基于各种感染标记的按蚊媒介传播低频的模型的开发，2)寄生虫消除终点的推导，3)为评估方案的有效性开发基于模型的评估协议，4)采用人口动态方法对低频控制策略进行经济评估，5)通过ITN将媒介控制包括到MDA方案中的动态评估，以及6)构建一个基于模型和数据的综合软件工具，以帮助对低频控制方案进行优化设计和评估。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The chief aims of this project are to advance understanding of the epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission by anopheline mosquitoes and its control using annual mass drug administration (MDA) strategies in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and elsewhere, and to develop and apply effective model-based decision support tools for optimizing the design and evaluation of parasite control at the community level. The research will take advantage of past and new field data to be collected by a recently funded NIH ICIDR program, on the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including the addition of vector control to MDA, on filariasis transmission in PNG endemic communities, in order to meet four specific aims: 1) development and validation of a mathematical model specific to describing the population dynamics of LF by anopheline mosquitoes in PNG, 2) estimation and validation of intervention endpoints via the comparative analysis of deterministic versus stochastic versions of the derived model, 3) testing model predictions of the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including MDA plus vector control by the use of Insecticide-Treated Bednets (ITNs), using empirical data on the effects of these interventions collected by the new ICIDR program, and 4) development and implementation of a software tool linking the constructed model and data from endemic sites to facilitate the undertaking of optimal planning, evaluation and management of LF control programs. The proposed research will thus be based on field data available and to be collected by the collaborators on this project on LF interventions, the analyses/modeling of these data and data describing infection dynamics in both the human and vector populations (data on the latter to be collected by conducting vector feeding experiments in this project), and theoretical analyses. The major outputs from this work of vital significance to the global LF elimination program will be: 1) the development of models of LF transmission by anopheline vectors based on various markers of infection, 2) the derivation of endpoints for parasite elimination, 3) the development of model-based evaluation protocols for assessing program effectiveness, 4) the taking of a population dynamic approach to economic assessments of LF control strategies, 5) the dynamic evaluation of including vector control via ITNs to MDA programs, and 6) the construction of a model- and data- integrated software tool for aiding the optimal design and evaluation of LF control programs.