Modeling quantum change in adolescent sexual initiation and condom use

描述（申请人提供）：模拟青少年性行为开始和安全套使用的量子变化更好地了解青少年早期性行为开始和安全套使用对预防艾滋病毒传播具有重要意义。根据双过程系统理论，人类的行为在很大程度上是由两个决策系统决定的。系统1是一种经常用于常规或快速决策的认知机制（例如，在紧急情况或压力下）；系统2是一种较少用于基于规则的决策的认知机制，它需要仔细权衡各种选择的利弊。根据这一理论，青少年关于性和避孕套使用的决定可能包含由系统1执行的快速过程和由系统2执行的渐进过程。从分析的角度来看，由系统1操作的行为变化将被视为“离散的”，因为这些变化是快速的，给人一种未经思考就执行的感觉。系统2执行的行为改变将被视为“连续的”，因为批判性思考和仔细评估需要时间。指导我们过去研究的行为理论和模型主要集中在连续变化上，而没有触及离散变化。人类行为中连续和离散过程的共存被称为“量子行为变化”（QBC），因为它们与物理学中众所周知的光的波和粒子的双重特性相似。通过QBC方法的应用，可以推进HIV行为研究。对行为的QBC性质的调查需要能够同时对连续和离散过程建模的方法；迄今为止，这种方法尚未得到很好的确立。尖点突变模型是一种很有前途的方法，但估计方法的一些局限性阻碍了它在HIV行为研究中的应用。在双过程系统理论的指导下，本项目将(1)扩展和改进尖峰突变建模的估计方法；(2)采用改进的方法模拟不同的风险和干预情景，对青少年性起始和安全套使用行为的复杂动态有新的认识；(3)采用相同的方法分析1997年全国青年纵向调查数据，以调查与危险性和安全性行为相关的因素，以及我们进行的两项由nih资助的随机试验数据，以重新评估项目效果；(4)开发支持使用尖点突变建模方法的统计软件，使其免费提供给研究人员。一个由行为科学家和方法学家组成的团队被召集起来，并做好了开展拟议研究的准备。据我们所知，该项目是第一个使用尖端突变建模方法并以双过程系统理论为指导来解决青少年性风险行为的QBC本质的项目。该项目的预期结果将(1)增加新的数据，进一步加深我们对青少年艾滋病毒风险行为的理解，并支持更有效的风险降低干预措施；(2)为研究人员提供新的范式和分析工具，以推进他们的研究议程。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Modeling quantum change in adolescent sexual initiation and condom use) A better understanding of early sexual initiation and condom use among adolescents is of great significance for prevention of HIV transmission. According to the dual-process systems theory, human behaviors are determined largely by two decision making systems. System 1 is a cognitive mechanism frequently used for routine or quick decisions (e.g., in emergency or under pressure); System 2 is a cognitive mechanism less frequently used for rule-based decisions by carefully weighing pros and cons of alternatives. According to this theory, adolescents' decisions regarding sex and condom use may contain both quick processes executed by System 1 and a gradual processes executed by System 2. Analytically, behavioral changes operated by System 1 will be seen as "discrete" because these changes are rapid, giving the appearance of having been executed without thinking. Behavioral changes executed by System 2 will be seen as "continuous" because critical thinking and careful assessment take time. Behavioral theories and models guiding much of our past research have focused on continuous changes, leaving discrete changes largely untouched. The co-existence of continuous and discrete processes in human behavior has been termed "quantum behavior change" (QBC) in the literature given their similarity to the well-known dual characteristics of waves and particles of light ray in physics. HIV behavior research may be advanced through the application of the QBC approach. The investigation of the QBC nature of a behavior requires methodologies capable of simultaneously modeling both continuous and discrete process; to date, such methods have not been well established. Cusp catastrophe modeling represents a promising approach, but several limitations of the estimation method prevent its use in HIV behavior research. Guided by the dual-process systems theory, in this project we will (1) extend and improve the estimation methods for cusp catastrophe modeling; (2) employ the improved methodology to simulate different risk and intervention scenarios to gain new insight into the complex dynamics of adolescents' sexual initiation and condom use behavior; (3) employ the same methodology to analyze the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 data to investigate factors associated with risky and safer sex, and data from two NIH-funded randomized trials we conducted to re-assess program effect; and (4) develop statistical software supporting the use of cusp catastrophe modeling method, making it available without charge to researchers. A team consisting of behavioral scientists and methodologists is assembled and well positioned to carry out the proposed research. To the best of our knowledge, this project is the first to address the QBC nature of adolescent sexual risk behavior using the cusp catastrophe modeling method and guided by the dual- process systems theory. Expected findings of this project will (1) add new data furthering our understanding of adolescent HIV risk behaviors and supporting more effective interventions for risk reduction and (2) provide new paradigms and analytical tools for researchers to advance their research agenda.