Modelled estimation of population immunity for coccidioidomycosis and the role of immunologically naïve populations in the shifting epidemiology of coccidioidomycosis in California

项目总结 这一K01奖项将支持Jennifer Head博士的职业发展，她是#年分部的流行病学家 加州大学伯克利分校环境健康科学专业。候选人的目标是成为一名 在数学和统计方法的开发和应用方面处于领先地位 新发传染病的传播动态。此应用程序建议将职业发展联系起来 和研究活动，以填补在了解人群对球孢子菌病的免疫方面的一个重要空白 因吸入土壤中的球孢子虫孢子而引起的新发传染病。而疾控中心估计 每年有近15万球孢子菌病病例没有统计，这是估计人口的直接方法 不能获得球孢子菌病的免疫力。缺乏对球孢子菌病的先前免疫力的估计， 我们无法确定经历较高漏检率的人群，了解Low的作用 人群免疫力在新地区出现的疾病，也解释不了感染风险的差异 以及案件的严重性。该项目旨在提高候选人在计算方法方面的专业知识和技能 用于稳健地估计人群中的先验免疫并将人群免疫纳入模型 检查疾病的关键驱动因素。候选人将开发一个量化的贝叶斯框架来估计 按加利福尼亚州地理区域划分的球孢子菌病优先免疫力(目标1)。候选人将延长 确定按种族和族裔报告不足的差距的框架，从而产生更准确的评估 消除疾病发病率差异(目标2)。人口免疫力的估计将整合到一个统计数据中 能够在移动免疫和非移动免疫存在的情况下估计感染的关键风险因素的框架 免疫群体(目标3)。通过与加州公共卫生部的合作，这项工作将 利用自2000年以来报告的94,000个地理位置病例的患者数据。五年培训计划包括 加州大学伯克利分校三位经验丰富、尽职尽责的教师导师提供的初级指导 生物统计学、传染病流行病学和疾病动力学。其他四位导师-全球最高领导人 真菌生物学、免疫学、人口学和社会流行病学--将支持候选人。领导力 拟议的研究，以及一项涉及课程作业和指导补助金撰写和项目的培训计划 管理层将把应聘者的培训目标提升到：1)建立评估角色的技能 疾病传播中的人群免疫；2)发展衡量和综合社会因素的专门知识 转化为传输模型；3)开发技能，以克服在处理大型 数据集；以及4)加强协作伙伴关系和培养领导技能，以指导跨学科 研究项目。加州大学伯克利分校致力于早期职业科学家；在流行病学方面的领导地位， 生物统计学和真菌生物学；传染病研究的良好记录；以及密切的伙伴关系 与公共卫生机构的合作将为应聘者提供一个出色的环境来推进她的职业目标。

PROJECT SUMMARY This K01 award will support the career development of Dr. Jennifer Head, an Epidemiologist in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. The candidate’s goal is to become a leader in the development and application of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the transmission dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. This application proposes linked career development and research activities to fill an important gap in understanding population immunity to coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by inhalation of soil-dwelling Coccidioides spores. While CDC estimates nearly 150,000 cases of coccidioidomycosis go uncounted each year, direct methods for estimating population immunity for coccidioidomycosis are unavailable. Absent estimates of prior immunity for coccidioidomycosis, we are unable to identify populations experiencing higher rates of under-reporting, understand the role of low population immunity in the emergence of the disease in new regions, nor explain disparities in infection risk and case severity. This project aims to advance the candidate’s expertise and skills in computational methods for robustly estimating prior immunity in populations and incorporating population immunity into models examining key drivers of disease. The candidate will develop a quantitative Bayesian framework for estimating prior immunity to coccidioidomycosis by geographic region in California (Aim 1). The candidate will extend the framework to identify disparities in under-reporting by race and ethnicity, yielding a more accurate assessment of disparities in disease incidence (Aim 2). Estimates of population immunity will be integrated into a statistical framework capable of estimating key risk factors for infection in the presence of mobile immune and non- immune populations (Aim 3). Through partnership with California Department of Public Health, the work will leverage patient data on >94,000 geolocated cases reported since 2000. The 5-year training plan includes primary mentorship from three experienced and committed faculty mentors at UC Berkeley with expertise in biostatistics, infectious disease epidemiology and disease dynamics. Four additional mentors—top leaders in fungal biology, immunology, demography, and social epidemiology—will support the candidate. Leadership of the proposed research, along with a training plan involving coursework, and mentored grant writing and project management, will advance the candidate’s training objectives to: 1) build skills in assessing the role of population immunity in disease transmission; 2) develop expertise in measuring and integrating social factors into transmission models; 3) develop skills to overcome computational barriers when working with large datasets; and 4) strengthen collaborative partnerships and build leadership skills for directing transdisciplinary research projects. UC Berkeley’s commitment to early career scientists; leadership in epidemiology, biostatistics, and fungal biology; strong track record of research in infectious diseases; and close partnerships with public health agencies will provide the candidate an outstanding environment to advance her career goals.