Hydrologic extremes and climate variability

许多水工建筑物（如大型水坝、堤防系统、城市雨水基础设施）的设计寿命为100年或更长。因此，今天正在规划或设计的许多这些结构在22世纪仍将继续使用，因此，它们的运行将受到预计在2005-2100年期间发生的气候变化的影响。然而，这些结构通常是根据过去30年观测到的气候条件设计的，往往忽略了这样一个事实，即这不能解释长周期形式的气候变率。这种情况是不可接受的；我们需要一种新的设计策略，考虑到气候变化和气候变化，以防止因设计不足或设计过度而造成的生命损失和损害。这种战略的预期好处包括改善大坝安全、保证饮用水供应、减少洪水和污染、防止生物多样性丧失以及降低城市雨水基础设施的成本。本研究将以过去在水文学研究方面的成功、对潜在物理过程的理解以及工程实践中的经验为基础，为以下方面开发更好的方法：a)设计城市雨水基础设施，b)确定洪泛平原，c)确定储水结构的规模，d)设计大型水坝的溢洪道，e)计算用于审查取水许可的溪流的低流量。

Many hydraulic structures (e.g. large dams, dyking systems, urban stormwater infrastructure) are designed with a design life of 100 years or more. Accordingly, many of these structures,which are being planned or designed today, will still be in service in the 22nd century and, therefore, their operation will be impacted by the climatic changes that are predicted to occur over the period 2005-2100. However, these structures are being designed for observed climatic conditions typically over the past 30 years, often ignoring the fact that this does not account for climate variability in the form of long-period cycles. This situation is not acceptable; a new design strategy, which account for climatic change and climate variability, is needed to prevent loss of human life and damages resulting from under-design or over-design. Expected benefits of such a strategy include improved dam safety, guaranteed supply of drinking water, reduced flooding and pollution, prevention of loss of biodiversity, and reduced cost of urban stormwater infrastructure. This research will build on past successes in hydrologic research, an understanding of the underlying physical processes, and experience in engineering practice to develop better methods for: a)designing urban stormwater infrastructure, b) identifying floodplains, c) sizing waater storage structures, d)designing spillways on large dams, e) calculating low flows in streams for use in reviewing water taking permits.