Risk and Determinants of Fatal and Non-Fatal Coronary Heart Disease in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study

在澳大利亚，心脏病是导致死亡和健康不良的主要原因。因此，它也给社会带来了巨大的成本负担。有效预防的关键是了解危险因素在心脏病发展中的作用。这些是通过使用大型队列研究来确定的，这些研究是那些随着时间的推移对一组个人进行跟踪的研究。统计分析用于建立预测方程，根据多种风险因素对心脏病风险的贡献来量化它们的影响。目前澳大利亚最常用的心脏病预测公式是基于较早的海外研究，如弗雷明翰心脏研究。除了与当前澳大利亚人口的相关性较低外，它们只包含有限范围的传统风险因素。一系列新的风险因素正在浮现。这项研究旨在利用墨尔本合作队列研究的当代数据，开发适用于当前澳大利亚人口的心脏病风险预测方程。这项研究的结果将使人们能够准确和自信地预测未来心脏病的发作，这反过来将使预防策略，包括昂贵的药物，能够以更有效的方式使用。最终，这一结果将导致澳大利亚更有效地配置有限的医疗资源。

Heart disease is the leading cause of death and ill-health in Australia. Accordingly, it also imposes a significant cost burden to the community. The key to effective prevention is understanding of the roles of risk factors in the development of heart disease. These are best defined through the use of large cohort studies, which are those that follow up a group of individuals over time. Statistical analyses are used to develop prediction equations to quantify the effects of multiple risk factors in terms of their contributions to risk of heart disease. The current heart disease prediction equations most commonly used in Australia are based on older overseas studies, such as the Framingham Heart Study. Other than having low relevance to the current Australian population, they incorporate only a limited range of traditional risk factors. A spectrum of new risk factors is emerging. This study aims to develop risk prediction equations for heart disease that are applicable to the current Australian population, using contemporary data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Results from this study will allow the future onset of heart disease to be predicted with accuracy and confidence, which in turn will allow preventive strategies, including expensive drugs, to be utilised in a more effective manner. Ultimately, the results will lead to a more efficient allocation of limited healthcare resources in Australia.