Fuzzy hybrid decision support systems for improving construction competitiveness

施工管理旨在提高我们计划、预测、控制和评估项目结果的能力，以便交付满足其目标的项目。决策支持系统是施工管理不可或缺的一部分；它们帮助施工人员做出更好、更知情和更快速的决策，以改善项目结果。开发建筑决策支持系统的挑战在于如何对由于语言表达而产生的不确定性进行建模，以及如何开发有效地捕捉工程判断的系统，同时利用有价值的项目数据。模糊逻辑是一种强大的建模技术，专门为处理自然语言和近似推理而设计。这项研究旨在发展模糊逻辑的一个基本方面，使其更适合于建筑应用。它使用一种名为神经模糊建模的技术，将模糊逻辑、专家系统和人工神经网络结合在一起，开发出两个与行业相关的建筑决策支持系统。建筑保证金是指保证金公司向项目业主保证承包商将遵守合同条款和条件的过程。随着项目变得更加复杂，承包商违约的风险变得更加严重，导致更高的担保标准和更高的债券溢价。这一趋势减少了对项目的竞争，增加了建设成本，这可能会限制建设项目的数量，并损害我们的有形基础设施等基本服务。这项研究旨在开发一个决策支持系统，以帮助债券公司评估做出债券决策的风险，帮助将债券的可获得性保持在刺激竞争和将建筑成本上升降至最低的水平。将开发另一个决策支持系统，以帮助承包商提高和优化建筑业的劳动生产率。劳动生产率是建设项目面临的最重大的不确定性之一，也是其最大的成本组成部分之一，这使得它成为一个需要解决的关键问题。

Construction management aims to improve our ability to plan, forecast, control, and evaluate project outcomes, in order to deliver projects that meet their objectives. Decision support systems are an integral part of construction management; they help construction personnel make better, more informed, and faster decisions to improve project outcomes. The challenges in developing decision support systems for construction lie in how to model uncertainties that are due to linguistic expression, and how to develop systems that effectively capture engineering judgment, while at the same time making use of valuable project data. Fuzzy logic is a powerful modeling technique that is specifically designed to handle natural language and approximate reasoning. This research aims to develop one of the fundamental aspects of fuzzy logic to make it more suited to construction applications. It uses a technique called neuro-fuzzy modeling to combine fuzzy logic, expert systems, and artificial neural networks to develop two industrially-relevant decision support systems for construction. Construction bonding is the process by which a bonding company provides a guarantee to a project owner that a contractor will comply with the terms and conditions of a contract. The risk of contractor default is becoming more significant as projects become more complex, resulting in higher bonding standards and larger premiums for bonds. This trend has resulted in reduced competition for projects and increased construction costs, which may limit the number of projects that are constructed and compromise essential services such as our physical infrastructure. This research aims to develop a decision support system to help bonding companies in evaluating the risks in making bonding decisions, to help maintain the availability of bonds to a diversity of contractors at a level that stimulates competition and minimizes construction cost escalation. Another decision support system will be developed to help contractors to improve and optimize construction labour productivity. Labour productivity is one of the most significant uncertainties facing a construction project and one of its largest cost components, making it a critical issue to address.