Development of applied data-driven modeling approaches for SAGD operations design

蒸汽辅助重力泄油（SAGD）被广泛应用，被认为是一种可行的、有效的商业原位开采油砂储量的方法。然而，这种提取方法需要通过燃烧天然气产生过量的蒸汽。与蒸汽产生相关的水消耗、能源使用和碳排放成本高昂，并对环境产生不利影响，威胁着加拿大油砂开发项目的可持续性。为了提高加拿大非常规油气行业的竞争力，该技术必须在最佳条件下运行，以实现对宝贵资源的更清洁开采。目前的工作流程需要静态油藏建模和数值流动模拟，通常只能提供采收率响应的近似解决方案，因为必须调用许多简化和假设。建模过程本身也非常繁琐和耗时，限制了其在实时优化中的应用。该研究旨在通过统计分析和人工智能技术开发改进和应用的数据驱动建模方法，为SAGD作业的性能预测、设计和实时决策提供实用工具。这些工具将用于油藏描述、采收率预测、不确定性评估、SAGD作业的定量排序和评价，以及设计最佳开发或生产策略。这项研究的结果将提高我们理解和预测SAGD油藏动态的能力。新的建模程序、详细的工作流程指南、涉及现场数据的案例研究示例以及通过本研究探索的数值算法将立即应用于提高现场规模的井规划和工厂运营效率，同时减少当前和未来油砂项目的碳足迹。

Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) has been employed extensively and considered as a viable and effective method for commercial in-situ production of oil sands reserves. This extraction method, however, requires generation of excessive amount of steam by combustion of natural gas. The water consumption, energy use, and carbon emissions associated with steam generation are costly and have adverse environmental impacts, threatening the sustainability of oil sands development projects in Canada. In order to enhance the competitiveness of Canada's unconventional oil and gas industries, it is extremely critical that the technology be operated at optimal conditions to achieve a cleaner exploitation of the valuable resources. Present workflow that entails static reservoir modeling and numerical flow simulations usually provide only approximate solutions to recovery responses, as numerous simplifications and assumptions must be invoked. The modeling process itself is also quite cumbersome and time-consuming, limiting its application in real-time optimization. The proposed research aims to develop improved and applied data-driven modeling approaches by means of statistical analysis and artificial intelligence techniques that would provide practical tools suitable for performance prediction, design, and real-time decision-making for SAGD operations. These tools will be used for the purposes of reservoir characterization, recovery performance prediction, uncertainty assessment, quantitative ranking and evaluation of SAGD operations, and design of optimal development or production strategies. The outcomes of this research would improve our ability to understand and predict SAGD reservoir performance. New modeling procedures, detailed workflow guidelines, case study examples involving field data, and numerical algorithms explored through this study would find immediate application in enhancing efficiencies in field-scale well planning and plant operations, while reducing carbon footprint of current and future oil sands projects.