Sustainable agriculture risk modelling and developing satellite derived index insurance

农业风险管理和保险是一个复杂的跨学科课题。该项目旨在通过开发新的和改进的农业保险精算方法，解决精算文献中的一个重大空白。该项目的一个主要方面将是开发一种创新的基于指数的保险计划。尽管指数保险对农业有希望，包括可能的成本效益、风险转移、透明度、消除道德风险和广泛应用，但迄今为止，指数保险没有以可持续的方式成功实施。缺乏成功的一个主要原因是基数风险，这是指用于确定赔偿的指数与实际农场水平损失之间的差异。将从精算的角度讨论农业保险的一些基本方面，包括改进的产量预测、天气模拟和制定费率的方法。在加拿大以及世界上许多其他国家，农业保险是通过公私合作方式提供的。为了反映这种重要的合作，这项拟议的研究在很大程度上依赖于多方利益攸关方的方法来解决研究问题，包括与再保险中介公司和农业保险部门的领导者盖伊·卡彭特公司以及加拿大农业和农业食品公司(AAFC)的合作。此外，这项研究将与再保险公司SCOR和空中客车国防和空间公司合作。预计这项研究将有助于加强加拿大作为全球农业部门领导者的地位，促进创新研究和开发，改善高等教育，改善农业保险，从而为加拿大人带来更大的经济繁荣。这项工作应该对加拿大和世界各地的农民、保险公司、再保险公司、生产者组织和政府以及其他研究人员有用。

Agricultural risk management and insurance represents a complex and interdisciplinary topic. This project aims to address a critical gap in actuarial literature, through developing new and improved actuarial approaches to agricultural insurance. A major aspect of the project will be on the development of an innovative index-based insurance scheme. Despite the promise that index insurance holds for agriculture, including possible cost efficiencies, risk transfer, transparency, elimination of moral hazard, and wide-scale application, including developing countries, to date index insurance has not been successfully implemented in a sustainable way. A main reason for this lack of success is due to basis risk, which refers to differences between the index used to determine indemnities and actual farm-level loss. A number of fundamental aspects of agricultural insurance will be addressed from an actuarial view point, including improved yield forecasting, weather modelling and ratemaking approaches. Agricultural insurance is delivered through a public-private partnership approach in Canada, as well as in many other countries throughout the world. To reflect this important cooperation, this proposed research relies heavily on a multi-stakeholder approach to address the research questions, including cooperation with Guy Carpenter & Company, a reinsurance intermediary and leader in the agricultural insurance sector, as well as Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). Further, this research will cooperate with the reinsurance company, Scor, and Airbus Defense and Space. It is anticipated that this research will help to strengthen Canada's position as a global leader in the agricultural sector, facilitating innovative research and development, improved higher education, and improved agricultural insurance, thereby bringing greater economic prosperity for Canadians. This work should be useful for farmers, insurers, reinsurers, producer organizations, and government, in Canada and throughout the world, as well as other researchers.