Bioenergetic approaches for understanding and forecasting ecological and epidemiological impacts of climate change

气候变化、土地利用变化和其他大规模干扰正在加速改变全球生态系统。需要能够概述未来影响的范围、时间表和方式的生态预测模型，以便采取积极主动的管理战略，例如在保护濒危物种和控制疾病方面。然而，与气候科学不同，气候科学通常使用机械模型来预测气候变化，而生态学尚未为预测生态系统对这些变化的反应提供一个全面的框架。这项建议整合了生理学、生态学和流行病学原理，以开发、测试和应用机械模型，以了解和预测气候变化对保护和公共/野生动物健康这两个关键领域的影响。

Climate change, land use change, and other large-scale disturbances are altering ecosystems globally at an accelerating rate. Ecological forecast models that can outline the scope, timeline and manner of future impacts are needed to allow for proactive management strategies, for example, in the conservation of endangered species and the control of diseases. However, unlike the climate sciences, where mechanistic models are routinely used to predict climate changes, ecology does not yet offer a comprehensive framework for predicting ecosystem response to these changes. This proposal integrates physiological, ecological and epidemiological principles to develop, test, and apply mechanistic models for understanding and forecasting climate change impacts in two key areas of conservation and public/wildlife health.