Analytical Modeling of Urban Public Transit Systems

城市公共交通系统的分析建模城市公共交通对于发展可持续的、能够提供更多机动性的交通系统是必不可少的。该研究计划的长期目标是找到规划、设计和运营城市公共交通的方法，以优化系统的总成本，包括乘客时间成本和系统成本；基本上平衡服务水平和提供服务的成本。我们使用分析方法对这类系统进行建模和优化，并在适当的情况下包括随机组件。该方法允许开发的方法适用于任何城市。该研究计划将包括以下与公共交通相关的主题的调查：公共交通网络分析；公交拥挤；以及实时公共交通出行时间预测。(A)我们研究了一条航线的最优“时间点”数量和相关时间表，以使典型航线的客户成本(例如延误)和运营商成本(例如运营成本)最小化。将研究公交车拥挤的情况，以制定将这种现象降至最低的策略。(B)可利用新的定位(例如全球定位系统)和通讯(智能电话)技术，为旅客提供从任何巴士站(包括晚班车和早班车)出发的巴士发车时间的实时估计。我们将研究实时估计和公开预测公交车旅行时间的方法，从路线上的任何一点到任何公交站。辅助运输：在非高峰时段使用可变路线和时间表(辅助)运输是在加拿大提供可持续运输系统的一项战略。我们将调查社区变得适合提供辅助过境服务的条件。我们将确定此类服务的参数，包括路线和调度算法、车辆组合、车队规模和车库位置。用户与运输机构沟通的时间和其他成本将包括在分析中。

ANALYTICAL MODELING OF URBAN PUBLIC TRANSIT SYSTEMSUrban public transit is essential to develop a sustainable transportation system that can provide increased mobility. The long term goal of the research program is to find ways to plan, design and operate urban public transit to optimize the total cost of the system including passenger time costs and system costs; essentially balancing the level of service with the costs of providing that service. We model and optimize such systems using an analytical approach, and where appropriate, include stochastic components. The approach allows the methodology developed to be applied to any city. The research program will include investigation of the following themes related to public transit: Transit Network Analysis bus bunching; and real time transit travel time prediction. (a) We investigate the optimal number of `time-points' for a route and the associated schedule that will minimize the costs to the customers (e.g. delays) and operator (e.g. operating costs), for a typical route. Bus bunching will be studied to develop strategies to minimize the phenomenon. (b) Novel location (e.g. GPS) and communications (Smart phones) technologies can be exploited to provide travellers with real time estimates of bus departure times from any bus stop, including late and early buses. We will investigate the methods for estimating and publicly predicting bus travel time, from any point on the route to any bus stop, in real time. Para-transit: The use of variable route & schedule (para-) transit in off peak periods is a strategy for providing a sustainable transit system in Canada. We will investigate the conditions under which communities become suitable for para-transit service. We will determine the parameters of such services including the routing & scheduling algorithms, vehicle mix, fleet size, and garage locations. The time & other costs to users of communicating with the transit agency will be included in the analyses.