Predictive horse supply models to forecast Thoroughbred horse supply requirements**

伍德拜娱乐集团（WEG）为顾客提供赛马、餐饮和娱乐体验，是赛马领域的世界领导者。WEG为加拿大经济做出了重大贡献，并在Rexdale地区及其他地区提供了就业机会。安大略省的纯种马产业最近经历了重大的资金变化，这对该行业的增长率产生了负面影响。2012年，安大略省政府宣布取消“赛马场插槽计划”（SARP），该计划大大减少了培育并随后被安置在安大略省赛马赛事中的马匹数量。这种减少对许多依靠健康的纯种马供应来维持其企业生存能力的企业产生了负面影响。受影响的利益相关者包括：饲养员、兽医、蹄铁匠、饲料生产商、分销商、马匹运输服务等。本研究的目标包括：1)开发一种包含多个数据源的统计算法来估计未来的马匹供应；2)进行广泛的统计检验，保证模型的准确性；3)开发基于软件的解决方案，将新建立的模型结合起来，并连接到WEG的数据管道。开发一个预测马匹供应模型将大大有助于确保伍德拜能够战略性地分配资源，以优化运营赛马场的净收益，为那些依赖纯种马行业谋生的个人和那些间接支持赛马的组织提供净收益。了解未来纯种马供应水平的短期利益将使纯种马行业达到平衡，从而确保其未来的稳定。能够更好地了解安大略省纯种马供应的长期利益将反映在更强大的马行业和安大略省整体经济的增强上。

Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) offers racing, dining and entertainment experiences to their patrons and is a world-leader in horseracing. WEG contributes significantly to the Canadian economy and provides employment opportunities in both the Rexdale area and beyond. The thoroughbred horse industry in Ontario has recently undergone significant funding changes that have negatively affected growth rates within the industry. In 2012, the Ontario government announced the cancellation of the "Slots at Racetracks Program" (SARP) which significantly reduced the number of horses being bred and subsequently placed into Ontario based racing events. This reduction has had a negative impact on the numerous businesses that depend on a healthy supply of thoroughbred horses to sustain the viability of their enterprises. Some of the impacted stakeholders include: breeders, veterinarians, farriers, feed producers, distributors, equine transportation services, etc. The objectives of this research include: 1) developing a statistical algorithm to estimate future horse supply inclusive of multiple data sources; 2) conducting extensive statistical testing to ensure the accuracy of the model; 3) developing a software-based solution that involves the incorporation of the newly established model and a connection to WEG's data pipeline. Developing a predictive horse supply model will go a long way in ensuring Woodbine can allocate resources strategically in order optimize the net benefits that running a racetrack can provide to those individuals that depend on the thoroughbred industry as a means of making a living and for those organizations that indirectly support horse racing. The short-term benefit of understanding future thoroughbred horse supply levels will allow the thoroughbred equine industry to reach an equilibrium that will ensure its future stability. The long-term benefit of being able to better understand Ontario's thoroughbred horse supply will be reflected in a stronger equine sector and an enhanced overall economy within the province of Ontario.