Evaluation of the climate change mitigation potential of Canadian forest products

近年来，森林部门经历了衰退，这导致其通过开发新产品和新工艺进行转型。当前的气候变化背景也在推动这一转变，因为森林产品经常被认为是不可再生材料、化学品和能源的首选替代品。因此，越来越多的政策和计划旨在促进它们的使用，以及新产品和工艺的开发。政府和工业界需要强有力的量化工具，以帮助他们确定在振兴森林部门的同时实现温室气体减排目标的最有效措施。生命周期评估(LCA)方法可以用于这样的目的，因为它允许比较不同替代品具有相同功能对气候变化和其他环境问题的影响。然而，最近的文献表明，关于对森林产品进行的长期土地利用评估的严重限制危及从这些研究中作出的决定。*这项提议的基本研究假设是，持续考虑生物碳和气候变化指标的强化相应长期土地利用评估方法将使政府和行业能够比较林业部门各种举措的气候缓解潜力。因此，这项研究计划的主要目标是开发一个相应的生命周期评价框架，以解决最近文献中确定的局限性。为实现这一目标，具体目标是：1)制定森林产品LCA的生物碳核算方法；2)确定和调整气候变化指标，更好地说明与森林产品有关的影响；3)将森林产品和相互竞争的材料纳入TIMES-加拿大模式；4)整合通过三个第一个具体目标开发的知识，并将其应用于比较加拿大不同森林产品减缓气候变化潜力的个案研究，从而验证相应的LCA办法。从长远来看，这项研究将提供全面和一致的工具，帮助监管机构和转型行业确定利用森林产品缓解气候变化的最佳战略，并确定盈利条件(例如碳市场、补贴)以及潜在障碍(例如资源可用性、自然干扰)。

In recent years, the forest sector has undergone a decline, which is leading to its transformation through the development of new products and processes. The current climate change context is also driving this transformation since forest products are often claimed to be preferred alternatives to non-renewable materials, chemicals, and energy sources. Therefore, an increasing number of policies and programs aim to promote their use, as well as the development of new products and processes. Government and industry need robust quantification tools to help them identify the most efficient measures to reach greenhouse gas emission reduction targets while revitalizing the forest sector. The life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology could be used for such a purpose as it allows comparing the impact on climate change, and on other environmental issues, resulting from different alternatives having the same function. However, recent literature has shown that serious limitations regarding LCAs conducted on forest products jeopardize decisions taken from these studies.***The underlying research hypothesis of this proposal is that an enhanced consequential LCA approach that consistently considers biogenic carbon and improved climate change indicators will enable government and industry to compare the climate mitigation potential of various initiatives in the forest sector. The main goal of this research program is thus to develop a consequential LCA framework addressing the limitations identified in recent literature. To reach this goal, specific objectives are: 1) to develop a biogenic carbon accounting method for forest product LCAs, 2) to identify and adapt climate change indicators that better account for impacts associated with forest products, 3) to integrate forest products and competing materials into the TIMES-Canada model, and 4) to validate the consequential LCA approach by integrating the knowledge developed through the three first specific objectives and applying it to a case study comparing the climate change mitigation potential of different Canadian forest products. In the long run, this research will provide comprehensive and consistent tools to help regulators and the transforming industry defining the best strategies for climate change mitigation using forest products, and identifying conditions for profitability (e.g. carbon market, subsidies) as well as potential barriers (e.g. resource availability, natural disturbances).**