Development of climate niche models reflecting among -population variation for major forest tree species in British Columbia

气候生态位模型已被广泛用于评估气候变化对森林树木和生态系统的影响，并在森林资源管理中制定适应性策略。然而，这些模型因缺乏足够的独立验证和忽视物种内种群间的遗传变异而受到批评。此外，模型输出（即，存在/不存在）与生产力没有直接关系。因此，验证这些模型的生物学意义并推进其在FRM中的应用具有重要意义。***在本研究计划中，我将把气候生态位模型的输出与适应特征联系起来，并开发下一代气候生态位模型来克服它们的局限性。具体目标包括：1)测试下一代气候生态位模型是否能够预测增长潜力和存在/缺失；2)结合生态系统分类，应用新的气候生态位模型反映了10种森林树种种群间的遗传变异；3)结合预测生长潜力、生态系统分类、基因组信息和种源试验数据对种群进行界定。为此，我将使用不列颠哥伦比亚省（BC）森林、土地、自然资源运营和农村发展部（mflnord）的生态图数据和美国森林清查分析（Forest Inventory Analysis）的图数据来建立气候生态位模型。用于验证模型的独立树木生长信息将从不列颠哥伦比亚省的植被资源清单（VRI）中获得。对于生态系统分类，我将使用BC的生物地理气候生态系统分类（BEC）。对于BC省以外的地区，我正在与mflnord生态学家合作，为阿尔伯塔省和美国西部各州开发与BC相当的森林生态系统分类。基因组信息将来自AdapTree和CoAdapTree项目，来源试验数据将来自mflnord。***这些目标将利用我在发展气候和气候生态位模型、分析种源数据的新方法以及利用基因组数据预测表型性状方面的经验和技能来实现。该研究项目的成果将有助于更好地理解气候生态位模型的生物学意义和明确定义的主要森林树种种群。随着我参与开发卑诗省mflnord的新“基于气候的种子转移系统”，下一代气候生态位模型将很容易在该工具中实施，以改善该省的森林适应战略。通过在这个项目中指导四名新的研究生和三名本科生，我将帮助培养下一代气候建模者来处理省级、全国和全球的这些环境问题。

Climate niche models have been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees and ecosystems and to develop adaptive strategies in forest resources management (FRM). However, these models have been criticized for both the lack of adequate independent validation and for ignoring among-population genetic variation within species. In addition, the model output (i.e., presence/ absence) is not directly relevant to productivity. Thus, it is important to validate the biological significance of these models and to advance their applications for FRM. *** In this proposed research program, I will relate the output of climate niche models to adaptive traits and to develop next-generation climate niche models to overcome their limitations. The specific objectives include: 1) to test whether a next-generation of climate niche models are capable of predicting growth potential as well as presence/absence; 2) to apply the new climate niche models in combination with ecosystem classifications to reflect among-population genetic variation for 10 forest tree species; and 3) to define populations through integration of predicted growth potential, ecosystem classification, genomic information and provenance trial data. *** To do so, I will use the Ecological Plot data from the Ministry of Forests, Lands, natural Resource Operations and Rural Development (MFLNRORD) of British Columbia (BC) and the plot data from Forest Inventory Analysis in the US to build climate niche models. Independent tree growth information for validation of the models will be obtained from the Vegetation Resource Inventory (VRI) in BC. For ecosystem classifications, I will use the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classifications (BEC) for BC. For the areas outside BC, I am in the process of developing BEC-equivalent forest ecosystem classifications for Alberta and western States of US in collaboration with MFLNRORD ecologists. Genomic information will come from the AdapTree and CoAdapTree projects, and provenance trial data will be obtained from MFLNRORD. *** These objectives will be met using my experience and skills in developing climate and climate-niche models, new methods for analyzing provenance data, and methods for predicting phenotypic traits using genomic data. The outcome of this research program will contribute to a better understanding of the biological significances of climate niche models and well-defined populations of major forest tree species. With my involvement in developing BC's new “Climate-based Seed Transfer System” for MFLNRORD, the next-generation climate niche models will be readily implementable in the tool to improve forest adaptation strategies in the province. By mentoring four new graduate students and three undergraduates within this program, I will be helping train the next generation of climate modelers to deal with these environmental issues provincially, nationally and globally.