Exposition et adaptation aux incendies forestiers dans la taïga canadienne

加拿大泰加的基础设施和社区面临非常严重和频繁的火灾。最近的麦克默里堡火灾(2016年5月)可能是加拿大历史上代价最高的自然灾害。此外，随着经济的发展和全球变暖，我们预计火、人和基础设施之间的互动将更加频繁。魁北克水电公司、马尼托巴省水电公司和泰加其他具有风险价值(VAR)的行业可以通过减少火灾暴露和减少预期的火灾影响来保护自己，但这些措施不能系统地部署到所有基础设施中。该项目的总体目标是使用一个模拟大量森林火灾蔓延的模型，以便以非常高的分辨率绘制整个La Grande水电站境内火灾风险的变化情况。然后，使用成本效益分析，我们将量化各种缓解措施对风险最大和具有战略意义的VAR的相关性。在魁北克北部发展的专门知识随后将应用于马尼托巴省北部的类似情况。制定的方法将指导工业合作伙伴(魁北克水电公司、马尼托巴省水电公司)和其他北部社区和管理人员的火灾管理政策和决策。该项目还将有助于培训HQP，使其能够评估气候变化背景下的短期和长期火灾风险。

Infrastructures and communities of the Canadian taiga are exposed to very severe and frequent fires. The recent Fort McMurray fire (May 2016) could be the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Moreover, with economic development and global warming, we expect more frequent interactions between fire, people and infrastructures. Communities, Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro and other industries with value at risk (VAR) in the taiga can protect themselves by attenuating exposure to fires and attenuating anticipated fire impacts, but these measures can not be deployed systematicaly for all infrastructures. The general objective of this project is to use a model that simulate the propagation of a very large number of forest fires in order to map the variability of the fire risk with very high resolution across the territory of the La Grande hydroelectric complex. Then, using a cost-benefit analysis, we will quantify the relevance of various mitigation measures for the most exposed and strategic VARs. The expertise developed in northern Quebec will subsequently be applied to the similar context of northern Manitoba. The approaches developed will guide fire management policies and decisions by the industrial partners (Hydro-Québec, Manitoba Hydro) and other northern communities and managers. This project will also contribute to the training of HQP able to assess the fire risk at short and long terms in the context of climate change.