Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in the Regional Municipality of Durham, Ontario

目前使用的COVID-19流行病学模型是在大流行的开始阶段开发的，是大规模模型，提供了整个国家或整个省的暴露、感染和康复/死亡人数（按年龄和/或合并症分层）。这些模式在大流行的初期阶段是适当的，当时的优先事项是减缓感染率，不惜一切代价减少受感染人数，包括采取严格的保持身体距离措施。随着我们进入第二阶段，目标是尽可能多地重启经济活动，同时避免感染的第二个高峰，因为感染可能会使急诊部门和卫生保健设施不堪重负，并导致经济再次放缓。现在已经很明显，第二阶段将需要一种更加细致入微的方法，这将在很大程度上取决于具体的当地条件。本研究将：

COVID-19 epidemiological models in current use were developed during the beginning stages of the pandemic and are large-scale models which provide numbers of exposed, infected, and recovered/deceased individuals (stratified by age and/or comorbidities) for the entire country or for an entire province. Those models were adequate in the initial stages of the pandemic, when the priority was to slow down the rate of infection and reduce the number of infected individuals at all costs, including the use of stringent physical-distancing measures. As we move to the second phase, the objective is to restart as much of the economic activity as possible, while avoiding a second peak in infections which can potentially overwhelm emergency departments and health-care facilities in general, as well as lead to renewed economic slowdown. It has now become evident that this second phase will require a much more nuanced approach, which will depend greatly on specific local conditions. This research will: 1) Develop a detailed, multi-compartment dynamic epidemiological model specific to the Regional Municipality of Durham, Ontario, and implement it as a software package to be deployed in the Durham-Region Health Department. 2) Develop reduced-scale experimental models of indoor environments for the study of droplet dispersion and use study findings to develop recommendations for physical distancing and protective measures for specific businesses and activities in Durham Region, Ontario.