Non-crash Based Safety Analysis: Innovative Models or Urban Intersections and Highways

交通系统正在不断发展，以满足日益增长的移动性、安全性和更大的运力需求。在日益强调可持续性和资源效率的同时，这也是必要的。在寻求创建更可靠的模型和分析技术的过程中，研究人员正在收集和分析不断增长的数据量。拟议的研究支持两个前沿的发展：[i]创建更可靠的安全预测模型，而不依赖于碰撞数据；[ii]创建更统一的框架来分析碰撞和非碰撞数据。 这项拟议研究的第一个目标是试图提高人们对如何在不借助碰撞数据的情况下预测安全性的了解。这涉及到在交通流中寻找能够反映安全隐患的线索。更有趣的是，如果这样的线索可以从假想或模拟的交通设施中获得。在建造这些模型时，将特别关注非机动化的旅行模型。还将研究校准模型的可转移性，以探索这些模型的通用性和适用性。 拟议研究的第二个目标试图开发一个统一的框架，对城市交叉口和高速公路加速车道的碰撞和非碰撞事件进行建模。将尝试对驾驶员、行人和骑自行车的人在交通设施中导航时的选择进行建模。随后，将调查这种模型是否可以用来预测这些设施的撞车事故发生率。

The transportation system is in a continual development to meet every increasing demand for mobility, safety, and increased capacity. This is required along with increasing emphasis on sustainability and resource-efficiency. In the quest to create more reliable models and analysis techniques, researchers are collecting as well as analyzing ever-increasing volumes of data. The proposed research supports the development of two frontiers: [i] creating more reliable models for safety prediction without the reliance on crash data and [ii] creating a more unified framework to analyze crash and non-crash data. The first goal of the proposed research attempts to advance the knowledge on how safety can be predicted without resorting to crash data. This involves the search for clues' in the traffic stream which can reflect safety hazards. More interestingly, if such clues can be obtained from hypothetical or simulated traffic facilities. In building these models, a special focus will be allocated to non-motorized models of travel. The transferability of calibrated models will also be investigated in order to explore the generality and applicability of these models. The second goal of the proposed research attempts to develop a unified framework to model crash and non-crash events for urban intersections as well as freeway acceleration lanes. Modelling of driver, pedestrian, and cyclist choices as they navigate traffic facilities will be attempted. Subsequently, it will be investigated whether such model can be used to predict the incidence of crashes on these facilities.