Non-crash Based Safety Analysis: Innovative Models or Urban Intersections and Highways

交通系统不断发展，以满足对移动性，安全性和容量增加的每一个不断增长的需求。这是沿着日益强调可持续性和资源效率的要求。为了创建更可靠的模型和分析技术，研究人员正在收集和分析越来越多的数据。该研究支持两个前沿领域的发展：[i]在不依赖碰撞数据的情况下创建更可靠的安全预测模型;[ii]创建一个更统一的框架来分析碰撞和非碰撞数据。该研究的第一个目标是试图推进关于如何在不依赖碰撞数据的情况下预测安全性的知识。这涉及在交通流中寻找可以反映安全隐患的线索。更有趣的是，如果这些线索可以从假设或模拟的交通设施中获得。在建立这些模型时，将特别关注非机动车出行模型。校准模型的可移植性也将被调查，以探索这些models.The拟议的研究的第二个目标试图开发一个统一的框架，以模拟城市交叉口以及高速公路加速车道的碰撞和非碰撞事件。模拟驾驶员，行人和骑自行车的选择，因为他们浏览交通设施将尝试。随后，将调查这种模型是否可用于预测这些设施的碰撞发生率。

The transportation system is in a continual development to meet every increasing demand for mobility, safety, and increased capacity. This is required along with increasing emphasis on sustainability and resource-efficiency. In the quest to create more reliable models and analysis techniques, researchers are collecting as well as analyzing ever-increasing volumes of data. The proposed research supports the development of two frontiers: [i] creating more reliable models for safety prediction without the reliance on crash data and [ii] creating a more unified framework to analyze crash and non-crash data.The first goal of the proposed research attempts to advance the knowledge on how safety can be predicted without resorting to crash data. This involves the search for clues' in the traffic stream which can reflect safety hazards. More interestingly, if such clues can be obtained from hypothetical or simulated traffic facilities. In building these models, a special focus will be allocated to non-motorized models of travel. The transferability of calibrated models will also be investigated in order to explore the generality and applicability of these models.The second goal of the proposed research attempts to develop a unified framework to model crash and non-crash events for urban intersections as well as freeway acceleration lanes. Modelling of driver, pedestrian, and cyclist choices as they navigate traffic facilities will be attempted. Subsequently, it will be investigated whether such model can be used to predict the incidence of crashes on these facilities.