Developing ecosystem-based approaches to address fisheries and climate change impacts for Newfoundland & Labrador marine ecosystems

旨在量化纽芬兰东北部地区过去和现在的生态系统动态，并对生态系统对气候变化的反应进行预测。这将通过开发纽芬兰和拉布拉多的生态系统模型来实现。这些模型可与种群评估结合使用，以了解生态系统动态如何影响单个种群的生产力，并估计自然死亡率--种群评估中使用的一个关键参数。生态系统模型框架可用于：-整合种群评估、生物量调查、渔业上岸的信息--为整个纽芬兰东北部生态系统的可持续捕获率提供信息--评估多物种捕捞控制规则--设定动态参考点，以应对系统状态的变化和过渡期--评估(并计划尽量减少)累积影响--在气候变化背景下，项目渔业生产力和生态系统动态在纽芬兰和拉布拉多，渔业渔获量和收入已从以前以底层鱼为主转向北方虾和雪蟹等无脊椎动物。据报道，近年来，由于气温上升和捕食，无脊椎动物的数量有所下降。环境条件对鳕鱼崩溃的贡献在文献中一直存在争议，捕鱼和海豹捕食导致的自然死亡的相对贡献也是如此。如果没有一个综合的、机械连接的框架来解释物种丰度及其摄食关系的变化，以及环境条件对种群生产力的影响，评估变化的生态系统结构和功能的研究就会受到限制。气候变化已经导致世界范围内海洋物种数量的变化和范围的变化，而且已经表明，纽芬兰生态系统中的物种对环境条件的变化有不同的反应，如温度、初级生产力、氧气和酸度。除了捕捞对生态系统的结构和功能产生的直接和间接影响外，气候变化在鱼类种群生产力的管理和预测方面增加了额外的压力和挑战。为纽芬兰和拉布拉多开发的区域海洋模式系统(ROMS)提供了有关洋流和环境条件的精细信息。这些模型可以与地球系统模型(ESM)相结合，以提供关键环境变量的气候变化预测，这些预测可以作为纽芬兰生态系统模型的输入，以运行不同排放和捕鱼情景下的气候变化模拟。

Aims To quantify the ecosystem dynamics of the northeast Newfoundland region through past and at present and make projections of ecosystem response to climate change. This will be undertaken by development of ecosystem models for Newfoundland & Labrador. These models can be used in combination with stock assessments to understand how ecosystem dynamics are influencing the productivity of individual stocks and estimate natural mortality - a key parameter used in stock assessments. An ecosystem modelling framework can be used to: -integrate information from stock assessments, biomass surveys, fisheries landings -inform sustainable harvesting rates across the northeast Newfoundland ecosystem -evaluate multi-species harvest control rules -set dynamic reference points to account for changing system states and transition periods -assessment of (and planning to minimize) cumulative effects -project fisheries productivity and ecosystem dynamics under to climate change Background In Newfoundland and Labrador, fisheries catches and revenues have shifted from those previously dominated by groundfish to invertebrates such as the northern shrimp and snow crab. It has been reported that invertebrate abundance has declined in recent years due to increases in temperature and predation. The contribution of environmental conditions to the collapse of cod has been debated in the literature, as has the relative contribution of fishing and natural mortality through predation by seals. Without an integrated, mechanistically connected framework that accounts for changing abundances of species and their feeding relationships and the influence of environmental conditions on stock productivity, studies evaluating changing ecosystem structure and function are limited. Climate change has already led to changes in abundance and shifts in range of marine species worldwide, and it has been shown that species in Newfoundland ecosystems have differential responses to changes in environmental conditions such as temperature, primary productivity, oxygen, and acidity. In addition to direct and indirect impacts that fishing has had on the structure and function of ecosystems, climate change adds an additional stressor and challenge in the management and prediction of fish stock productivity. There have been regional ocean model system (ROMS) developed for Newfoundland and Labrador which provide fine scale information about oceanographic currents and environmental conditions. These models can be coupled with Earth system models (ESMs) to provide climate change projections of key environmental variables, which can be used as input for Newfoundland ecosystem models to run simulations of climate change under different emissions and fishing scenarios.