Development of climate niche models reflecting among -population variation for major forest tree species in British Columbia

气候生态位模型已被广泛用于评估气候变化对林木和生态系统的影响，并制定森林资源管理的适应性战略。然而，这些模型因缺乏足够的独立验证和忽略物种内种群间的遗传变异而受到批评。此外，模型产出(即存在/不存在)与生产率没有直接关系。因此，验证这些模型的生物学意义并推进其在FRM中的应用是非常重要的。在这个拟议的研究计划中，我将把气候生态位模型的输出与适应性特征联系起来，并开发下一代气候生态位模型，以克服它们的局限性。具体目标包括：1)测试下一代气候生态位模型是否能够预测增长潜力以及是否存在；2)结合生态系统分类应用新的气候生态位模型，以反映10种林木种群间的遗传差异；3)通过整合预测的增长潜力、生态系统分类、基因组信息和种源试验数据来确定种群。为此，我将使用不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC)森林、土地、自然资源运营和农村发展部(MFLNRORD)的生态样地数据和美国森林调查分析的样地数据来建立气候生态位模型。用于模型验证的独立树木生长信息将从不列颠哥伦比亚省的植被资源调查(VRI)中获得。对于生态系统分类，我将使用生物地理气候生态系统分类(BEC)。对于卑诗省以外的地区，我正在与MFLNRORD生态学家合作，为艾伯塔省和美国西部各州制定相当于BEC的森林生态系统分类。基因组信息将来自AdapTree和CoAdapTree项目，种源试验数据将从MFLNRORD获得。这些目标将利用我在开发气候和气候生态位模型、分析种源数据的新方法以及使用基因组数据预测表型特征的方法方面的经验和技能来实现。这一研究计划的结果将有助于更好地理解气候生态位模型和主要森林树种的明确种群的生物学意义。随着我参与开发卑诗省新的“基于气候的种子转移系统”，下一代气候生态位模型将很容易在该工具中实施，以改进该省的森林适应战略。通过在这个项目中指导四名新的研究生和三名本科生，我将帮助培训下一代气候建模人员，以应对省级、全国和全球的这些环境问题。

Climate niche models have been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on forest trees and ecosystems and to develop adaptive strategies in forest resources management (FRM). However, these models have been criticized for both the lack of adequate independent validation and for ignoring among-population genetic variation within species. In addition, the model output (i.e., presence/ absence) is not directly relevant to productivity. Thus, it is important to validate the biological significance of these models and to advance their applications for FRM. In this proposed research program, I will relate the output of climate niche models to adaptive traits and to develop next-generation climate niche models to overcome their limitations. The specific objectives include: 1) to test whether a next-generation of climate niche models are capable of predicting growth potential as well as presence/absence; 2) to apply the new climate niche models in combination with ecosystem classifications to reflect among-population genetic variation for 10 forest tree species; and 3) to define populations through integration of predicted growth potential, ecosystem classification, genomic information and provenance trial data. To do so, I will use the Ecological Plot data from the Ministry of Forests, Lands, natural Resource Operations and Rural Development (MFLNRORD) of British Columbia (BC) and the plot data from Forest Inventory Analysis in the US to build climate niche models. Independent tree growth information for validation of the models will be obtained from the Vegetation Resource Inventory (VRI) in BC. For ecosystem classifications, I will use the Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classifications (BEC) for BC. For the areas outside BC, I am in the process of developing BEC-equivalent forest ecosystem classifications for Alberta and western States of US in collaboration with MFLNRORD ecologists. Genomic information will come from the AdapTree and CoAdapTree projects, and provenance trial data will be obtained from MFLNRORD. These objectives will be met using my experience and skills in developing climate and climate-niche models, new methods for analyzing provenance data, and methods for predicting phenotypic traits using genomic data. The outcome of this research program will contribute to a better understanding of the biological significances of climate niche models and well-defined populations of major forest tree species. With my involvement in developing BC's new “Climate-based Seed Transfer System” for MFLNRORD, the next-generation climate niche models will be readily implementable in the tool to improve forest adaptation strategies in the province. By mentoring four new graduate students and three undergraduates within this program, I will be helping train the next generation of climate modelers to deal with these environmental issues provincially, nationally and globally.