New order of risk management: Theory and applications in the era of systemic risk

社会所依赖的系统越来越开放，联系越来越紧密，支持这些系统的人员、商品、服务、技术和信息的流动性越来越强。不可避免的是，如今的整体风险格局越来越具有系统性。2019冠状病毒病危机和乌克兰地缘政治危机是具体化的系统性风险的持续例子，突显了这一变化，并提醒我们，在我们可能无法再减轻和修复此类风险的影响之前，全球迫切需要立即采取行动遏制系统性风险。然而，为了能够成功地处理社会责任，我们迫切需要从根本上改变我们对风险的看法和管理方式，首先要更好地理解社会责任本身的概念。我们需要对风险采取更广泛的看法，并处理其系统性的复杂性，而不是诉诸于孤立和脱离背景的概念。因此，我们需要将风险视为一种复杂的物理现象——来自形式科学和自然科学的投入，以及一种同样复杂的社会现象——来自社会科学的投入，并认识到物理和社会是交织在一起的。在本研究项目中，我们将开发一个综合的风险风险理论，该理论将风险的物理和社会维度、空间和时间领域、主要和次要影响渠道结合起来，并在一个承认风险脆弱性和易感性差异的框架内进行研究。然后，在增强对风险管理控制周期理论认识的基础上，我们将：(1)重新定义风险管理控制周期，通过改进其阶段来明确整合风险管理控制周期；(2)建立风险融资机制，以缓冲特别提款权的财务后果；(3)设计监管工具，衡量社会责任转移机制的包容性，确保在监管协议中准确、公平地反映社会责任的归属。

The systems on which society depends are increasingly more open and connected, and the people, goods, services, technology, and information supporting these systems are increasingly more mobile. Inevitably, the overall risk landscape nowadays is increasingly more systemic. The COVID-19 crisis and the Geopolitical Crisis in Ukraine are ongoing examples of materialized systemic risks (SRs) that highlight the change and serve as a reminder of the global urgency to act on taming SRs immediately, before a point where we may no longer be able to mitigate and repair the impacts of such risks is reached. However, to be able to deal with SRs successfully, there is an acute need for a fundamental transformation in how we think of and manage risk, beginning with a better understanding of the notion of SR itself. We need to adopt a broader view of risk and deal with the complexity of its systemic nature without resorting to notions that isolate and remove from context. Hence, we need to consider risk as a complex physical phenomenon - with inputs from the formal and natural sciences, and as an equally complex social phenomenon - with inputs from the social sciences, under the understanding that the physical and the social are intertwined. In this research program, we will develop a comprehensive theory of SR that combines the physical and social dimensions of risk, its spatial and temporal domains, and its primary and secondary channels of impact within a framework that acknowledges differences in risk vulnerability and susceptibility. Then, building on the enhanced theoretical understanding of SR, we will: (1) redefine the risk management control cycle by revamping its stages to explicitly integrate SR; (2) develop risk financing mechanisms capable to cushion the financial consequences of SRs; (3) devise regulatory instruments that measure the inclusivity of SR transfer mechanisms and ensure accurate and fair reflection of the attribution to SR in regulatory accords.