Landscapes of fear in the Anthropocene: Linking predation risk and human disturbance to animal behavior and ecological outcomes

捕食者通过捕食猎物在构建生态系统中起着关键作用。最近，理论和实验证据表明，捕食者对猎物的非消耗性影响可能会超过猎物移除的影响，这表明捕食威胁可能比捕食本身在生态上更重要。被捕食的动物不断地在恐惧的场景中导航，或者在捕食者遭遇和捕获的风险中感知到时空异质性。避开危险区域可能会减少可用的栖息地，而在感知风险较高的区域调节觅食和警惕等活动可能会产生巨大的生理和机会成本。捕食者诱导的这些猎物行为的变化因此可能危及生存和繁殖，并影响猎物与生态系统中其他物种的相互作用。尽管捕食风险效应具有潜在的重要性，但关于捕食的非消耗性效应在自由放牧的大型哺乳动物种群和生态系统中的作用仍存在争议。人类干扰可能沿着多条路径重塑动物的恐惧景观：管理行动有助于捕食者的损失和恢复，人类活动和基础设施为野生动物提供了新的可感知的风险来源，土地利用和全球变化改变了捕食风险的游戏场。为了预测和减轻不断扩大的全球人类足迹对生物多样性的影响，我们必须了解支撑动物对人类干扰做出反应的生态机制。我的长期研究计划旨在加深我们对这些机制的理解，重点是风险权衡如何塑造大型陆生哺乳动物的行为。在接下来的五年里，我的研究小组将通过数据合成和在非洲和北美的实地考察，努力实现这一长期目标。我们的短期目标是：(1)研究顶级食肉动物返回莫桑比克戈龙戈萨国家公园如何重塑对羚羊猎物的恐惧景观；(2)合成全球相机陷阱数据集，以量化人类干扰对世界各地物种互动的影响；以及(3)探索不同类型的人类活动、态度和行为如何塑造北美恐惧的社会生态景观。这项研究的一个组成部分是对三名博士、三名硕士和六名理科学生进行野外生态和数据科学方面的培训。通过这项工作，我的目标是促进我们对捕食风险在陆地生态系统中的作用的理解，最终为在一个日益拥挤的星球上保护生物多样性和人与野生动物共存的战略提供信息。

Predators play a key role in structuring ecosystems through the consumption of prey. Recently, theoretical and experimental evidence have demonstrated that the non-consumptive effects of predators on prey can potentially exceed the effects of prey removal, suggesting that the threat of predation may be even more ecologically important than predation itself. Prey animals are constantly navigating landscapes of fear, or perceived spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the risk of predator encounter and capture. Avoidance of risky areas can reduce available habitat, and the modulation of activities like foraging and vigilance in areas of high perceived risk can have significant physiological and opportunity costs. These predator-induced shifts in prey behavior can thus compromise survival and reproduction and shape prey interactions with other species in the ecosystem. Despite the potential importance of predation risk effects, there remains debate about the role of non-consumptive effects of predation in free-ranging, large mammal populations and ecosystems. Human disturbance may reshape animals' landscapes of fear along multiple pathways: management actions contribute to the loss and recovery of predators, human activity and infrastructure present novel perceived sources of risk for wild animals, and land use and global change alter the playing field of predation risk. To anticipate and mitigate the impacts of the expanding global human footprint on biodiversity, we must understand the ecological mechanisms that underpin animal responses to human disturbance. My long-term research program aims to deepen our understanding of these mechanisms, with a focus on how risk trade-offs shape the behavior of large-bodied, terrestrial mammals. Over the next five years, my research group will work towards this long-term goal through data synthesis and fieldwork in Africa and North America. Our short-term objectives are to: (1) Examine how the return of apex carnivores to Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique, has reshaped landscapes of fear for antelope prey; (2) Synthesize global camera trap datasets to quantify the influence of human disturbance on species interactions worldwide; and (3) Explore how different types of human activity, attitudes, and behaviors shape socio-ecological landscapes of fear in North America. Integral to this research will be the training of three PhD, three MSc, and six BSc students in field ecology and data science. Through this work, I aim to advance our understanding of the role of predation risk in terrestrial ecosystems, ultimately informing strategies for biodiversity conservation and human-wildlife coexistence on an increasingly crowded planet.